- 加密貨幣率先以比特幣的形式出現,目前已有10多年的歷史,並於不久前大幅反彈,形勢類似於20世紀70年代的黃金、80年代的日本股票、90年代的互聯網股票、21世紀初的油價和20世紀10年代的科技股。
- 但是數字貨幣仍然不太可能取代國家貨幣成為交易媒介。
- 不過隨著時間的推移,加密貨幣可能將部分取代黃金,通過電子而非實物的方式提供價值儲存。
- 不過數字貨幣仍需解決信任、波動性、監管層認可度和聲譽風險等一系列重要問題,但一旦解決,數字貨幣有望起到溫和的避險作用。
第一種加密貨幣比特幣,現在已經有十多年的歷史。在過去的12個月內,比特幣獲得了相當大的關注,價格從2020年3月的4000美元左右飆升至今年的40000美元以上,之後朝30000美元的水平回落(見圖)。
比特幣的驚人漲幅與過去幾十年的巨大投資熱潮不相上下,包括20世紀70年代的黃金、80年代的日本股票、90年代的互聯網股票、21世紀初的油價和20世紀10年代的科技股。
但是比特幣仍然不太可能取代國家貨幣成為經濟中的主要交易媒介。不過隨著時間的推移,數字貨幣可能將部分取代黃金,通過電子而非實物的方式提供價值儲存。
在本文中,我們認為加密貨幣仍然必須克服的重大問題包括信任、波動性、監管認可度和聲譽風險。但一旦這些問題得到解決,數字貨幣有望成為一種避險資產,在投資者的投資組合中起到溫和的避險作用。
介紹
貨幣有三個核心功能:作為交易媒介、記帳單位和價值儲存。
資料來源:新加坡銀行、彭博
第一批比特幣持有者最初旨在擁有一種私人發行且供應量有限的數字貨幣。政府可通過量化寬鬆、過度造幣和通貨膨脹等方式降低法定貨幣或紙幣的價值,但無法通過同樣的方式降低比特幣的價格。
因此加密貨幣作為一種交易媒介、記帳單位和價值儲存手段,將與各國貨幣相抗衡。
交易媒介
然而,私人發行的加密貨幣由於其作為交易媒介存在缺陷,不太可能在未來取代政府發行的國家貨幣。
首先,比特幣和黃金一樣,進行跨境支付的效率太低,不具有競爭力。
Ethereum是一種能夠更快交易的數字貨幣,但仍然遠落後於SWIFT(環球銀行金融電信協會)和其他傳統支付系統。
其次,通常情況下數字貨幣的供應量如同黃金一樣有限,如果「流通速度」不能相應提高,就無法促進經濟活動的增長。
在20世紀30年代大蕭條之前的數十年裡,政府將本國貨幣與貴金屬掛鉤,造就金本位制,產生的重大缺陷則是流通速度低。稀缺的黃金儲備限制了貨幣供應,抑制了經濟增長,並引發了多輪通縮。
第三,政府不會容忍任何貨幣直接威脅到其貨幣主權。
例如,科技公司Facebook宣佈推行數字貨幣libra不久,就面臨著非常強烈的監管阻力。
各國政府對任何有可能取代本國貨幣的科技均非常警惕,因為這可能不利於決策層在經濟危機期間印錢或在平時從「鑄幣稅」獲取利益。鑄幣稅是指以面值減去紙幣和硬幣的生產成本後發行法定貨幣的財務收益。
值得注意的是,一些央行正在使用自己的區塊鏈技術推出數字貨幣,但新的電子貨幣仍將以各國央行的本幣計價。
記帳單位
如果隨著時間的推移,商品和勞務變成以比特幣、ethereum等作為報價單位,加密貨幣可能獲得市場更多的青睞。在這種情況下,數字貨幣將作為一種「記帳單位」,使消費者能夠以加密貨幣的形式比較不同產品的價格。
不過這仍然需要店主以多種貨幣提供商品,但有進取心的賣家將能夠利用好這個機會。過去十年,由於香港店家做好準備,收取大陸遊客的在岸人民幣(CNY),促使了離岸人民幣(CNH)興起。
價值儲存
然而,加密貨幣最有可能作為價值存儲的替代手段。未來,數字貨幣可能會與黃金競爭,成為一種避險資產。
與黃金相比,加密貨幣有一些明顯的優勢。數字貨幣更受年輕人的歡迎。在數字錢包中存放比特幣和其他電子貨幣亦比較方便。
相比之下,貴金屬難以用於日常交易,需要存放在安全的物理地點。
加密貨幣與黃金亦有幾個相似之處。
兩者均不賺取任何收益或利息。兩種資產的價格在很大程度上都是由投資者需求和金融投機決定的,不過貴金屬存在與珠寶商和行業掛鉤的真實需求。此外,一些加密貨幣(包括比特幣但不包括ethereum)和黃金一樣,供應量有限。
例如,根據世界黃金協會的數據,地面上的黃金儲量估計約為19.8萬公頓,另有5.7萬公噸仍在地下。
因此,以目前每盎司1870美元的價格計算,黃金總供應量約為16.8萬億美元。同樣,比特幣的總供應量亦僅限於2100萬枚,其中近90%已被「開採」。以目前3萬美元左右的價格計算,現有比特幣供應量價值5670億美元。
相比之下,法定貨幣的供應量遠大於黃金或加密貨幣。聯儲局估計美國廣義貨幣供應量M3為18.8萬億美元,
而這僅為一個國家的紙幣。此外,聯儲局目前正在通過印鈔和每月購買1200億美元的國內債券擴大美元供應,以通過量化寬鬆支持美國經濟。
不過,與黃金或紙幣相比,數字貨幣有一些明顯的劣勢。
比特幣的波動性很大,過去一年從4000美元漲到40000多美元,然後又回到30000美元,大幅的價格波動就說明瞭這一點。一個月的波動率超過90vols。相比之下,同樣衡量歐元和黃金的隱含波動率分別約為6vols和16vols。
除非作為反週期避險工具進行交易,比特幣亦與股票和其他風險資產相關。
在金融危機中,加密貨幣更有可能在市場崩盤期間被投資者拋售,猶如2020年3月疫情開始時的市場崩盤。相比之下,黃金自古以來一直被用作價值存儲和對沖通貨膨脹的工具。
加密貨幣面臨著數字錢包被盜和詐騙的風險。
此外因為比特幣和其他私人發行的電子貨幣可能因匿名特徵而受到毒販、洗錢者和其他犯罪分子的青睞,所以比特幣亦存在明顯的聲譽風險。
最後,黃金作為一種避險貴金屬,僅面臨與白銀的競爭。相比之下,沒有什麼事物能阻止未來推出新的增強型加密貨幣,從而使所有其他已經存在的數字貨幣貶值。
風險
為成為能夠實現投資組合多樣化的資產,特別是為了在未來作為避險工具與黃金競爭,加密貨幣需要克服幾個重大障礙。
首先,投資者需要值得信賴的機構,能夠安全地持有數字貨幣。
自2009年比特幣首次出現以來,持有者丟失電子錢包鑰匙或遭受交易所盜竊的風險一直居高不下。據彭博報道,2014年,日本的一家交易所Mount Gox遭到黑客攻擊,導致客戶損失約85萬枚比特幣。
其次,流動性需要大幅提高,將波動性降低到可控水平。
即使加密貨幣首次開始流通後已經過10年,市場走勢仍經常令人費解,價格數據不完善,難以分析當前趨勢或做出預測。
未來,機構投資者(相對於對沖基金和散戶投資者而言,資產管理公司擁有更長的時間跨度)進一步參與比特幣交易,將有助於增加流動性,降低波動性,並使價格走勢更多地由基本面驅動,而非由投機行為驅動。
第三,監管機構需要對數字貨幣更加包容,讓機構和散戶投資者更廣泛地參與其中。
2020年10月,英國金融行為監理總署禁止向散戶出售涉及加密貨幣的衍生品。金融行為監理總署亦警告稱,此類產品估值困難,還存在市場濫用、網絡盜竊和價格極度波動的風險。
相比之下,美國監管機構可能更青睞加密貨幣。商品期貨交易委員會(CFTC)前主席格裡·根斯勒將成為美國證券交易委員會的下一任主席。美國證券交易委員會一直對電子貨幣持懷疑態度。但根斯勒最近一直在麻省理工學院(MIT)教授金融技術和數字貨幣,因此可能願意允許更廣泛地投資加密貨幣。
第四,政府機構需要遏制犯罪活動,降低持有數字貨幣的聲譽風險。
美國財政部提議,加密貨幣託管人和交易所應收集和報告可識別利用「非託管錢包」(即在金融機構之外持有的加密貨幣賬戶)進行大型交易的訊息,以保護國家安全,打擊洗錢和其他犯罪行為。
但財政部杜絕非法交易的提議,目前正遭到業界的強烈反對。
里程碑
上述障礙表明,投資者能夠廣泛將數字貨幣納入投資組合之前,數字貨幣仍然存在明顯的障礙——信任、波動性、監管層認可度和聲譽風險。
如果美國證券交易委員會批准比特幣或另一種加密貨幣的交易所買賣基金(ETF),這將是一個重要的里程碑。此舉將提供一個值得信賴並且可靠的投資工具,允許新參與者投資數字貨幣,提高流動性,降低波動性,並有助於降低聲譽風險。
2004年11月,紐約證券交易所推出了SPDR黃金股票交易所買賣基金。該基金由實物黃金提供支持,並在黃金價格達到每盎司400美元時開始交易。
與黃金掛鉤的交易所買賣基金推出後,吸引了更多的黃金投資者,並支持金價連年上漲。去年,金價創下每盎司2075美元的歷史新高。
結論
加密貨幣在未來有望成為一代替代資產,起到溫和的避險作用。
然而,私人發行的電子貨幣不太可能在未來取代政府發行的法定貨幣所起到的交易媒體地位。但是,一旦克服了包括信任、波動性、監管層認可度和聲譽風險等重大障礙,數字貨幣可能會隨著時間的推移部分取代黃金,通過電子而非實物的方式提供價值儲存。
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It is being provided to a limited number of sophisticated investors solely to enable them to decide whether or not to make an offer to invest in financial products mentioned in this document, outside of the Sultanate of Oman, upon the terms and subject to the restrictions set out herein and may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose or provided to any person other than the original recipient. Additionally, this document is not intended to lead to the making of any contract within the territory or under the laws of the Sultanate of Oman. The Capital Market Authority of Oman and the Central Bank of Oman take no responsibility for the accuracy of the statements and information contained in this document or for the performance of the financial products mentioned in this document nor shall they have any liability to any person for damage or loss resulting from reliance on any statement or information contained herein. 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No person or entity in Taiwan has been authorised to provide the information and to offer the service in Taiwan. Thailand: Please note that neither Bank of Singapore Limited nor any other entities in the Bank of Singapore Limited’s group maintains any licences, authorisations or registrations in Thailand nor is any of the material and information contained, or the relevant securities or products specified herein approved or registered in Thailand. Interests in the relevant securities or products may not be offered or sold within Thailand. The attached information has been provided at your request for informational purposes only and shall not be copied or redistributed to any other person without the prior consent of Bank of Singapore Limited or its relevant entities and in no way constitutes an offer, solicitation, advertisement or advice of, or in relation to, the relevant securities or products by Bank of Singapore Limited or any other entities in Bank of Singapore Limited’s group in Thailand. The Philippines: The information contained in this document is not intended to constitute a public offering of securities under the Securities Regulation Code of the Philippines. Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC): Bank of Singapore Limited has a branch registered in the Dubai International Financial Centre ("DIFC") which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). 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The material is only intended for persons who fulfill the criteria to be classified as “Professional Clients” as defined under the DFSA rules and should not be reviewed, received, provided to or relied upon by any other person. United Arab Emirates (U.A.E): The information contained herein is exclusively addressed to the recipient. The offering of certain products in this document has not been and will not be registered with the Central Bank of United Arab Emirates or Securities & Commodities Authority in the United Arab Emirates. Any products in this document that are being offered or sold do not constitute a public offering or distribution of securities under the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. This document is not intended for circulation or distribution in or into the UAE, other than to persons in the UAE to whom such circulation or distribution is permitted by, or is exempt from the requirements of, the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. The distribution of the information contained herein by the recipient is prohibited. Where applicable, this document relates to securities which are listed outside of the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and the Dubai Financial Market. The Bank of Singapore Limited is not authorized to provide investment research regarding securities listed on the exchanges of the United Arab Emirates which are outside of the DIFC. 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