市场震荡加剧,投资者的确定性也不如以往。由于低利率和低收益率似乎会长期存在,投资者在公募市场已难觅曾经稳健的超额回报机会,甚至对市场震荡和泡沫等情况的忧虑情绪也逐渐支配了股市。
现实情况是,目前经济增长的很大一部分都不是来自于公募市场。因此,另类投资正受到市场越来越多的关注,例如私募市场等能够作为分散投资和多种回报来源的投资渠道。
截至2020年的十年间,全球私募市场的资产管理规模增长170%,达4万亿美元,远超公募市场(增长100%)。1与此同时,对冲基金资本在2020年第四季度增速创记录,大幅增长2900亿美元,达3.6万亿美元。2截至2019年第二季度的两年间,全球家族办公室的数量增长38%3,其中亚洲市场的扩张速度比任何其他地区都快。
新加坡银行全球产品主管Lim Leong Guan表示:“我们认为,投资者会在投资组合中配置更多另类资产,这一趋势将延续。全球各地的资深投资者均认识到另类投资的优势,这类投资可为投资组合分散风险,增加收益来源,而这是传统资产无法提供的。另类投资策略的优势允许投资者获得超额回报,同时还能获得不受市场走势影响的回报,但前提是选择好的基金经理和合作伙伴。”
越来越多的投资者认识到,个人投资组合中有必要对各类优质私募资产进行分散投资,这种需求比以往任何时候都更加紧迫,截至2025年,全球私募市场的资产管理规模预计将达到13.7-15.0万亿美元4——对冲基金资本将增长至4.3万亿美元5。
创造财富和分散投资的新途径
对于高净值个人和家族办公室等类型的投资者而言,产生这种需求的部分原因是私人财富管理领域的变化。传统上,财富管理通常主要由必要的财富保值和资产保护组成;希望保护现有财富并确保遗产的传承。但随着东方经济发展日益繁荣,理财兴趣呈现投资区域更加多元化的发展趋势,而随着传统资产的回报减少,市场对投资另类资产以实现资产增值的需求变得更加紧迫。
另类投资不仅能够提供比公募市场同类资产更高的回报前景,同时还能提供多元化分散投资;与公募市场的相关性低(并可减少公募市场的风险敞口)。常见的全方位投资组合中的资产在不同市场环境下均能表现良好;当股市波动时债券会上涨,等等。但是,在债券收益率可以忽略不计、现金收益很少或根本没有利息的环境下,股票、固定收益和现金等传统资产似乎变得更加脆弱。
新加坡银行全球产品主管Leong Guan Lim表示:“从投资广度和深度而言,传统公募市场以外的投资机会庞大,且投资高度分散。投资者可以选择私募股权、私募债务、风险投资、对冲基金和房地产投资。还有一系列普通投资者可能很难接触到的各类投资机会。虽然另类投资并不适合每个投资者,但多数情况下,配置部分另类资产肯定会对投资者的长期投资目标有利。”
资深投资者正意识到,私募市场等另类投资提供了主流渠道越来越难以获得的投资机会,不过虽然需求不断加速,但投资者对私募市场的投资兴趣比对该市场的实际资金投入要多。
研究表明,虽然几乎所有类型的有限合伙人 (LP) ——从主权财富基金到养老基金和保险公司——每年都在不断提高其另类投资目标配置,但大部分对私募市场的投资仍然不是很活跃。事实上,有限合伙人对私募市场投资的目标配置与实际对私募市场的资金投入之间相差约5000亿美元。6
弥补差距
首先,对私募市场投资作出出资承诺并不意味着立即配置相应资产,只有在投资项目确定之后才会进行实际出资。
投资者也可能会在退出时开始收回资金,即使他们仍在投资其他需要额外资金支持才能发展的私营公司。这导致投资者在任何时候的净投资额均低于初始承诺金额。
第二个障碍是私募市场的可及性。另类投资不像传统公募市场那样透明,也不是为散户设计的投资项目。虽然个人直接投资私营公司或私募市场基金的机会偶尔会出现(通常是通过个人关系获得),但在这一监管相对较松的市场中,所需的尽职调查程度超出了大多数高净值投资者的能力,他们可能缺乏相关资源、专业知识和主动管理私募投资的能力。
同样地,由于私募市场的被动投资机会有限或根本不存在,因此基金经理的选择至关重要。
经理选择的重要性
投资者需要具备敏锐的判断力,能及时洞悉私募市场的机遇。如果没有能够洞悉市场机会的基金经理和主导投资的合作伙伴,出现投资失误的机会就会大大增加。做出正确的投资决策至关重要,尤其是考虑到私募市场投资通常是长期的,因此流动性不像公募市场投资那样高。
Lim表示:“私募市场基金的回报分散程度最高,表现最佳与表现最差的基金经理之间的差距非常明显。此外,私募基金的投资参与决策通常是一项长期承诺,因此对投资者来说,审慎选择参与的基金尤为重要。”
对于绝大多数个人投资者而言,将资金委托予有经验和资源,能够妥善选择、管理和退出投资的专业私募股权经理,是参与私募市场投资的最佳方式。
Lim补充称:“新加坡银行为本行客户定制了私募市场的投资机会。本行通过专门团队在该市场寻找、研究和监控投资机会,成为客户的投资渠道,为客户提供适当的投资机会,通过本行建立粘度高的私募市场投资组合。本行也了解不同客户对私募市场投资的需求不同,因此我们也寻求不同的投资方式来满足客户独特的需求。”
1 McKinsey; 2 AlphaWeek; 3 ReportLinker; 4 PWC; 5 Preqin; 6 McKinsey
新加坡銀行與Bloomberg Media Studio 聯合製作
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