- 投资
- 2019年10月08 日
气候变化：适应或灭亡
By 陈健铭
投资策略师
- 目前，全球都明显地感受到气候变化的实质影响；2015-2019年是有记录以来最热的五年
- 企业已经容易受到短期的干扰；长期气候风险可能会颠覆商业模式
- 随着决策层加强对气候变化威胁的应对，我们也看到风险和机遇同时出现
什么是气候变化？有何重要性？
简单而言，气候变化是指地球的天气模式和温度出现大规模和长期的变化。气候变化的实质影响——更长时间的热浪和干旱、极端的冬季、更频繁和更强烈的风暴、洪水和海平面上升—现今全球都清楚感受。气候变化扰乱了经济和社会，往往影响到社会中最贫穷和最脆弱的阶层。
图1：全世界多个地区的气温创新高
注：地图显示某个位置2019年8月的平均气温与往年同月的对比情况，每个位置至少有80年的资料。
资料来源：美国国家海洋和大气管理局国家环境信息中心，2019年8月全球气候报告。
最近的事态发展显示，在签订具有里程碑意义的2015年《巴黎气候协定》后，加上由瑞典环保主义者通贝里领导的气候行动在国际逐渐形成动力，促使各国刻不容缓地履行承诺。该协定设定了将全球变暖幅度限于较工业化前上升1.5°C(或“远低于”2°C)的最终目标。
其他措施包括科学基础减碳目标倡议组织和气候相关财务披露工作小组旨在通过提供技术专长支援，协助企业为正面的气候变化成果做贡献，并管理气候风险。
这种紧迫性是必要的。最近的气候趋势令人担忧：世界气象组织最新资料显示，2015年至2019年是有记录以来最热的五年，2015-2019年的五年平均温度已经超过工业化前时期1.1°C。大部分有人类活动的陆地温度上升幅度，甚至超过全球平均地表温度。
其中大部分是人为的；联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)称，人类活动导致全球升温高于工业化前水平约1.0°C。
更令人担忧的是，化石燃料的使用和工业排放的二氧化碳—在大气中吸收热量，并加剧全球变暖的主要温室气体—处于前所未有的高水平。
为了稳定全球温度，二氧化碳净排放量必需减至零；这要求发电、工业、运输和农业在内的所有经济活动的排放量急剧下降，同时可能提供支援的新科技，以便从大气中去除二氧化碳。IPCC的最新特别报告警告说，各国的减排承诺目前不足以将全球变暖幅度限制在1.5°C以内。
联合国秘书长古特雷斯在9月下旬举行的联合国气候行动峰会上表示：“气候紧急情况是一场我们正在输的比赛，但我们其实可以取胜。”“将升温幅度限制在 1.5°C 仍是可能的。但是，这需要社会各个层面做出根本转变——如何种植粮食、使用土地、为交通工具添加燃料及推动我们的经济。”
图2：全球化石燃料二氧化碳排放量处于前所未有的高水平
注：增长率是指定时期内的复合年增长率。灰带显示高于/低于排放估计值5%的水平，以表示排放量估算的不确定性。
资料来源：欧盟全球大气研究排放数据库(EDGAR)、新加坡银行。
新加坡总理李显龙强调该岛国面临威胁的严重性，并认为应该像对待该国的军事防御一样严肃看待气候变化防御。“这些都是生死攸关的问题。”他在8月的国庆群众大会致辞时说。
企业面临的风险
如今，企业也已经容易受到公司和行业特定气候风险的影响。一个简单的例子是，冬天越暖和或夏季延长，扰乱了服装制造商和服装零售商订单的可见度。
虽然带来不便，但与更频繁的洪水、飓风、干旱，以及长期海平面上升为企业资产或整个经济造成的潜在损害相比，这些问题显得微不足道。气候变化导致环境出现的缓慢的结构性变化，将可能在根本上改变公司运营模式的可行性。除了对企业的潜在损害外，这些变化也可能扰乱粮食生产，使人们流离失所，对社会稳定产生深远的影响。
由前联合国秘书长潘基文、国际货币基金组织总干事格奥尔基耶娃和亿万富商慈善家盖茨领导的全球气候适应委员会的数据显示：更大的海暴和风暴潮可能迫使沿海城市数以亿计的人离开家园，到2050年，沿海城市每年总损失将超过1万亿美元。
政策变化给公司带来了新的监管风险，尤其是那些化石燃料生产(石油和天然气、热煤)、采矿、发电和其他排放密集型行业，比如水泥和化学品制造业。
欧洲提议的规则要求投资者将详细标准纳入筛选有助于正面气候变化成果的经济活动，这可能迫使全球企业加强气候风险管理资讯披露和更广泛的环境相关绩效，否则会出现失去融资渠道的风险。
由于与气候变化相关的监管转变，一些企业已经面临资产价值损失比预期更快的风险，这称为资产搁浅。这些资产可能包括：由于碳和污染税增加而使开采变得不符经济效益的化石燃料和矿物储备；不符合新的能源效率和排放标准的发电基建和生产设施；以及沿海房地产和基础设施因洪水而变得无法再使用。
总体而言，我们相信公司将面对更多与气候风险相关的监管、环境和消费者压力，迫使它们适应或灭亡。在最近发表的《可持续投资入门》报告中，我们指出于日益复杂的社交媒体运用的支援下，对环境、社会和治理问题的醒觉和激进行动日渐增加，鼓励更多人士要求制定与这些问题有关的公共政策和私人商业惯例。
适应带来的机会
逐步过渡到更加环保、具有气候变化适应能力的全球经济，将重塑全球的人类活动，为投资和增长带来新的机遇。
协助设计和建设气候防御系统、改善水和粮食安全，以及开发节能、低排放技术和程序的公司将吸引更多的投资者兴趣和投资资本。
同样，如果旗下产品和服务能够密切配合减废及再利用自然资源的长期转变—“循环经济”,这类公司则可望受惠持续变化的消费者偏好和法规 。
全球气候适应委员会的研究提出，全球未来10年在粮食和水安全、气候适应基础设施等关键领域的投资达到1.8万亿美元。限制未来的气候风险损失，除了带来经济、社会和环境好处外，也可为社会带来7.1万亿美元的净收益。该研究举例说，提醒风暴或热浪来袭的预警系统，可以拯救至少十倍于其成本的生命和资产。
结论
随着全球决策层加强对气候变化威胁的应对，我们看到企业和投资者正在面对新的风险和机遇。致力追求可持续发展、适应气候改变的发展道路，并透过减排和适应气候变化而降低气候变化的威胁，这些或会推动整个社会出现广泛而重大的变化。未能及时预见这些变化和做出调整的公司，可能会逐渐被投资者排挤，而在极端情况下，其运营模式或遭颠覆；成功适应的公司将受益于经济格局的重塑，拥有更持续的商业前景，更好的发展壮大机会。
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This document is prepared by Bank of Singapore Limited (Co Reg. No.: 197700866R) (the “Bank”), is for information purposes only, and is not, by itself, intended for anyone other than the recipient. It may contain information proprietary to the Bank which may not be reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part without the Bank’s prior consent. It is not an offer or a solicitation to deal in any of the investment products referred to herein or to enter into any legal relations, nor an advice or by itself a recommendation with respect to such investment products. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, investment experience, financial situation and the particular needs of any recipient or customer. Customers should exercise caution in relation to any potential investment. Customers should independently evaluate each investment product and consider the suitability of such investment product, taking into account customer’s own specific investment objectives, investment experience, financial situation and/or particular needs. Customers will need to decide on their own as to whether or not the contents of this document are suitable for them. If a customer is in doubt about the contents of this document and/or the suitability of any investment products mentioned in this document for the customer, the customer should obtain independent financial, legal and/or tax advice from its professional advisers as necessary, before proceeding to make any investments.
The Bank, its Affiliates and their respective employees are not in the business of providing, and do not provide, tax, accounting or legal advice to any clients. The material contained herein is prepared for informational purposes and is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used or relied upon for tax, accounting or legal advice. Any such client is responsible for consulting his/her own independent advisor as to the tax, accounting and legal consequences associated with his/her investments/transactions based on the client’s particular circumstances.
This document and other related documents have not been reviewed by, registered or lodged as a prospectus, information memorandum or profile statement with the Monetary Authority of Singapore nor any regulator in Hong Kong or elsewhere.
This document may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed in whole or in part to any other person without the Bank’s prior written consent. This document is not intended for distribution to, publication or use by any person in any jurisdiction outside Singapore, Hong Kong, or such other jurisdiction as the Bank may determine in its absolute discretion, where such distribution, publication or use would be contrary to applicable law or would subject the Bank and its related corporations, connected persons, associated persons and/or affiliates (collectively, “Affiliates”) to any registration, licensing or other requirements within such jurisdiction.
Investments in financial instruments or other products carry significant risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Financial instruments or other products denominated in a foreign currency are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which may have an adverse effect on the price or value of an investment in such products. No liability is accepted by the Bank for any loss (whether direct, indirect or consequential) that may arise from any use of the information contained in or derived from this document. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. Any prices provided in this document (other than those that are identified as being historical) are indicative only and do not represent firm quotes as to either price or size. You should contact your local representative directly if you are interested in buying or selling any financial instrument or other product or pursuing any trading strategy, investment strategy or wealth planning structure that may be mentioned in this document.
While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure that the contents of this document have been obtained or derived from sources believed by the Bank and its Affiliates to be reliable, neither the Bank nor its Affiliates has independently verified the accuracy of such source(s). The Bank and its Affiliates and their respective officers, employees, agents and representatives do not make any express or implied representations, warranties or guarantees as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information, data or prevailing state of affairs that are mentioned in this document and do not accept any liability for any loss or damage whatsoever, direct or indirect, arising from or in connection with the use of the contents of this document.
The Bank and its Affiliates may have issued other reports, analyses, or other documents expressing views different from the contents hereof and all views expressed in all reports, analyses and documents are subject to change without notice. The Bank and its Affiliates reserve the right to act upon or use the contents hereof at any time, including before its publication herein.
The author of this document may have discussed the information contained therein with others within or outside the Bank and the author and/or such other Bank personnel may have already acted on the basis of this information (including communicating the information contained herein to other customers of the Bank). The Bank, its personnel (including those with whom the author may have consulted in the preparation of this communication), and other customers of the Bank may be long or short the financial instruments or other products referred to in this document, may have acquired such positions at prices and market conditions that are no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests. The persons providing the information to you may receive commissions, fees, rebates or other non-monetary benefits from any counterparty, broker, agent or another affiliate of the OCBC Group or any other party in respect of any trades or transactions effected for you including in relation to the investments referred to herein.
Bank of Singapore Limited is a licensed bank regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in Singapore. Bank of Singapore Limited, Hong Kong Branch, is an Authorized Institution as defined in the Banking Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap 155), regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority in Hong Kong and a Registered Institution as defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap.571) regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong. Bank of Singapore Limited, its employees and discretionary accounts managed by its Singapore Office may have long or short positions or may be otherwise interested in any of the investment products (including derivatives thereof) referred to in this document and may from time to time dispose of any such investment products. Bank of Singapore Limited forms part of the OCBC Group (being for this purpose Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited and its subsidiaries, related and affiliated companies). OCBC Group, their respective directors and/or employees (collectively “Related Persons”) may or might have in the future interests in the investment products or the issuers mentioned herein. Such interests include effecting transactions in such investment products, and providing broking, investment banking and other financial services to such issuers. OCBC Group and its Related Persons may also be related to, and receive fees from, providers of such investment products.
Bank of Singapore Limited adheres to a group policy (as revised and updated from time to time) that provides how entities in the OCBC Group manage or eliminate any actual or potential conflicts of interest which may impact the impartiality of research reports issued by any research analyst in the OCBC Group.
Past performance is not always indicative of likely or future results. The value of any investment or income may go down as well as up. All investments involve an element of risk, including capital loss. Customers who are interested to invest in such investment products should read the risk disclosures and governing terms and conditions that are set out in the relevant offering documents.
Dual currency investments, structured deposits and other investment products are not insured by the Singapore Deposit Insurance Corporation or the Hong Kong Deposit Protection Scheme.
Applicable to clients booked and/or managed in the Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC) only: The information contained herein is exclusively addressed to the recipient. The offering of certain products in this document has not been and will not be registered with the Central Bank of United Arab Emirates or Securities & Commodities Authority in the United Arab Emirates. Any products in this document that are being offered or sold do not constitute a public offering or distribution of securities under the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. This document is not intended for circulation or distribution in or into the UAE, other than to persons in the UAE to whom such circulation or distribution is permitted by, or is exempt from the requirements of, the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. The distribution of the information contained herein by the recipient is prohibited. Where applicable, this document relates to securities which are listed outside of the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and the Dubai Financial Market. Bank of Singapore Limited is not authorized to provide investment research regarding securities listed on the exchanges of the United Arab Emirates which are outside of the DIFC.
Cross-Border Marketing
Hong Kong SAR: Bank of Singapore Limited is an Authorized Institution as defined in the Banking Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap 155), regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority in Hong Kong and a Registered Institution as defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap. 571), regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong. This document is for information only and is not intended for anyone other than the recipient. It has not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong. It is not by itself an offer or a solicitation to deal in any of the financial products referred to herein or to enter into any legal relations, nor an advice or a recommendation with respect to such financial products. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, investment experience and the particular needs of any recipient or Investor. This document may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed in whole or in part to any other person without the Bank’s prior written consent. This document is not intended for distribution to, publication or use by any person in any jurisdiction outside Hong Kong, or such other jurisdiction as the Bank may determine in its absolute discretion, where such distribution, publication or use would be contrary to applicable law or would subject the Bank and its related corporations, connected persons, associated persons and/or affiliates to any registration, licensing or other requirements within such jurisdiction. Indonesia: The offering of the investment product in reliance of this document is not registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and its implementing regulations, and is not intended to constitute a public offering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and its implementing regulations. According, this investment product may not be offered or sold, directly or indirectly, within Indonesia or to citizens (wherever they are domiciled or located), entities or residents, in any manner which constitutes a public offering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and its implementing regulations. Japan: The information contained in this document is for general reference purposes only. It does not have regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk tolerance and particular needs. Nothing in this document constitutes an offer to buy or sell or an invitation to offer to buy or sell or a recommendation or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or investment. We do not have any intention of conducting regulated business in Japan. You acknowledge that nothing in this document constitutes investment or financial advice or any advice of any nature. Malaysia: Bank of Singapore Limited does not hold any licence, registration or approval to carry on any regulated business in Malaysia (including but not limited to any businesses regulated under the Capital Markets & Services Act 2007 of Malaysia), nor does it hold itself out as carrying on or purport to carry on any such business in Malaysia. Any services provided by Bank of Singapore Limited to residents of Malaysia are provided solely on an offshore basis from outside Malaysia, either as a result of “reverse enquiry” on the part of the Malaysian residents or where Bank of Singapore Limited has been retained outside Malaysia to provide such services. As an integral part of the provision of such services from outside Malaysia, Bank of Singapore Limited may from time to time make available to such residents documents and information making reference to capital markets products (for example, in connection with the provision of fund management or investment advisory services outside of Malaysia). Nothing in such documents or information is intended to be construed as or constitute the making available of, or an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase any such capital markets product. Myanmar: This document and information herein is made available by Bank of Singapore Limited, which is not licensed or registered under the Financial Institutions Law (Law No. 20/2016) or other Myanmar legislation to carry on, nor do they purport to carry on, any regulated activity in Myanmar. The provision of any products and services by Bank of Singapore Limited shall be solely on an offshore basis. You shall ensure that you have and will continue to be fully compliant with all applicable laws in Myanmar when entering into discussion or contracts with Bank of Singapore Limited. Oman: This document does not constitute a public offer of investment, securities or financial services in the Sultanate of Oman, as contemplated by the Commercial Companies Law of Oman (Royal Decree No. 4/1974), Banking Law of Oman (Royal Decree No. 114/2000) or the Capital Market Law of Oman (Royal Decree No. 80/1998) and the Executive Regulations of the Capital Market Law (Ministerial Decision No. 1/2009) or an offer to sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy non-Omani investment products, securities or financial services and products in the Sultanate of Oman. This document is strictly private and confidential. It is being provided to a limited number of sophisticated investors solely to enable them to decide whether or not to make an offer to invest in financial products mentioned in this document, outside of the Sultanate of Oman, upon the terms and subject to the restrictions set out herein and may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose or provided to any person other than the original recipient. Additionally, this document is not intended to lead to the making of any contract within the territory or under the laws of the Sultanate of Oman. The Capital Market Authority of Oman and the Central Bank of Oman take no responsibility for the accuracy of the statements and information contained in this document or for the performance of the financial products mentioned in this document nor shall they have any liability to any person for damage or loss resulting from reliance on any statement or information contained herein. Russia: The investment products mentioned in this document have not been registered with or approved by the local regulator of any country and are not publicly distributed in Singapore or elsewhere. This document does not constitute or form part of an offer or invitation to the public in any country to subscribe for the products referred to herein. South Korea: The document does not constitute an offer, solicitation or investment advertisement to trade in the investment product referred to in the document. Taiwan: The provision of the information and the offer of the service concerned herewith have not been and will not be registered with the Financial Supervisory Commission of Taiwan pursuant to relevant laws and regulations of Taiwan and may not be provided or offered in Taiwan or in circumstances which requires a prior registration or approval of the Financial Supervisory Commission of Taiwan. No person or entity in Taiwan has been authorised to provide the information and to offer the service in Taiwan. Thailand: Please note that neither Bank of Singapore Limited nor any other entities in the Bank of Singapore Limited’s group maintains any licences, authorisations or registrations in Thailand nor is any of the material and information contained, or the relevant securities or products specified herein approved or registered in Thailand. Interests in the relevant securities or products may not be offered or sold within Thailand. The attached information has been provided at your request for informational purposes only and shall not be copied or redistributed to any other person without the prior consent of Bank of Singapore Limited or its relevant entities and in no way constitutes an offer, solicitation, advertisement or advice of, or in relation to, the relevant securities or products by Bank of Singapore Limited or any other entities in Bank of Singapore Limited’s group in Thailand. The Philippines: The information contained in this document is not intended to constitute a public offering of securities under the Securities Regulation Code of the Philippines. Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC): Bank of Singapore Limited has a branch registered in the Dubai International Financial Centre ("DIFC") which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). Bank of Singapore Limited (DIFC Branch) is not a financial institution licensed in the United Arab Emirates outside of the DIFC and does not undertake banking or financial activities in the United Arab Emirates nor is it licensed to do so outside of the DIFC. This material is provided for information purposes only and it is general information not specific in any way to any particular investor, investor type, strategy, investment need or other financial circumstance. As such this information is not financial advice or a financial promotion, nor is it intended to influence an investor's decision to invest. It is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The material is only intended for persons who fulfill the criteria to be classified as “Professional Clients” as defined under the DFSA rules and should not be reviewed, received, provided to or relied upon by any other person. United Arab Emirates (U.A.E): The information contained herein is exclusively addressed to the recipient. The offering of certain products in this document has not been and will not be registered with the Central Bank of United Arab Emirates or Securities & Commodities Authority in the United Arab Emirates. Any products in this document that are being offered or sold do not constitute a public offering or distribution of securities under the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. This document is not intended for circulation or distribution in or into the UAE, other than to persons in the UAE to whom such circulation or distribution is permitted by, or is exempt from the requirements of, the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. The distribution of the information contained herein by the recipient is prohibited. Where applicable, this document relates to securities which are listed outside of the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and the Dubai Financial Market. The Bank of Singapore Limited is not authorized to provide investment research regarding securities listed on the exchanges of the United Arab Emirates which are outside of the DIFC. United Kingdom: In the United Kingdom, this document is being made available only to the person or the entity to whom it is directed being persons to whom it may lawfully be directed under applicable laws and regulations of the United Kingdom (such persons are hereinafter referred to as ‘relevant persons’). Accordingly, this document is communicated only to relevant persons. Persons who are not relevant persons must not act on or rely on this document or any of its contents. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. Relevant persons in receipt of this document must not distribute, publish, reproduce, or disclose this document (in whole or in part) to any person who is not a relevant person. United States of America: This product may not be sold or offered within the United States or to U.S. persons.
Brunei: This document has not been delivered to, licensed or permitted by the Autoriti Monetari Brunei Darussalam, the authority as designated under the Brunei Darussalam Securities Markets Order, 2013 and the Banking Order, 2006; nor has it been registered with the Registrar of Companies, Registrar of International Business Companies or the Brunei Darussalam Ministry of Finance. The products mentioned in this document are not registered, licensed or permitted by the Autoriti Monetari Brunei Darussalam or by any other government agency or under any law in Brunei Darussalam. Any offers, acceptances, sales and allotments of the products shall be made outside Brunei Darussalam.
