On 22 April 2021 (Earth Day), US President Joe Biden pledged to cut US emissions by 50-52%from 2005 levels by 2030 in the latest step-up in US commitments to fight climate change.
This target expands the Obama administration’s earlier pledge to reduce emissions by 26-28% by 2025 and implies a significant acceleration in the pace of decarbonisation over the next decade to set the US economy on a path to net zero emissions by 2050. The US also promised to double the climate financing it provides each year to developing countries to help reduce emissions
A national climate task force is developing a national climate strategy to be issued later this year. This is consistent with our view that Biden would take a whole-of-government approach to fighting climate change, extending climate policy into the US Treasury, national security and foreign policy.
Top US officials including Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken have promised to direct public investment and shape policy to support the US transition to net-zero emissions.
As we have highlighted earlier, intense competition between the US and China for superiority in new technologies will be a key driver of government policy and investments in clean energy and related technology for years to come.
“It’s difficult to imagine the United States winning the long-term strategic competition with China if we cannot lead the renewable energy revolution. Right now, we’re falling behind. China is the largest producer and exporter of solar panels, wind turbines, batteries, electric vehicles,” Blinken said in a speech on 19 April 2021. “We’ll put the climate crisis at the centre of our foreign policy and national security.”
Several other countries including Japan, Canada and Brazil also announced more ambitious targets for emissions cuts at the Earth Day climate summit hosted by Biden, adding to the growing list of countries that have enhanced their decarbonisation commitments since the 2015 Paris Agreement.
Beyond the latest emissions targets, critical policy developments in other major economies are also taking shape that will transform the world economy in the years to come. At the Earth Day Climate Summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping said China would begin phasing out coal use starting in 2026 - 2030 as part of its efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Last year, President Xi pledged that China would reach peak emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.
On 21 April 2021, Chinese authorities issued an updated catalogue of economic activities eligible to be financed by green bond issuance, known as the Green Bond Endorsed Projects Catalogue. The new catalogue completely excludes coal and other fossil fuels – even “clean use” of such fuels – from green activities, clearly signalling China’s policy intention to direct capital raised from green bonds to support the transition away from fossil fuels and towards low-carbon projects.
China is working to mobilise “massive green investment” and has identified green finance as a priority for this year and the next five years, People’s Bank of China (PBoC) governor Yi Gang said on 21 March 2021. The PBoC plans to develop a mandatory disclosure system that would require all financial institutions and firms to follow uniform disclosure standards and is also working with the European Union to harmonise green taxonomies across the two markets this year, Yi Gang said.
In Europe, government leaders have now reached in-principle agreement on the European Climate Law, which targets a cut in net greenhouse gas emissions of 55% or more by 2030 from 1990 levels, and zero net emissions by 2050.
The EU has also formally adopted the first part of its classification system for green economic activities, the EU Taxonomy Climate Delegated Act, introducing screening criteria to define activities that contribute substantially to climate change adaptation and mitigation. Other key regulations now in force in the EU include the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) to ensure companies provide consistent and comparable sustainability information.
As we have highlighted previously, we view these developments as a serious shift in Europe-wide policy that will progressively reshape economic activity across Europe and the allocation of capital globally. In particular, the new rules requiring EU-based asset managers and investment firms to integrate detailed criteria to screen for economic activities that contribute to positive climate change outcomes are likely to pressure companies worldwide to enhance disclosures on climate risk management and broader sustainability-related performance, or risk losing access to investment capital.
Powering the decarbonisation drive through energy transition
We expect a large proportion of near-term decarbonisation efforts to be focused on reducing emissions from power generation, and electrification of other sectors such as automobiles and transportation. Businesses are increasingly positioning themselves for this energy transition.
Last year, worldwide spending on renewable energy, electrification of heating and transport, and other energy transition initiatives reached a record USD501 billion despite the severe disruption from Covid-19. We expect this to grow further over the next few years.
Today, solar and wind are already the cheapest source of new bulk electricity generation in countries representing over two-thirds of the world population, three-quarters of global GDP and 90% of electricity demand, a Bloomberg NEF analysis published in December 2020 shows.
Even before any new initiatives by the Biden administration to accelerate decarbonisation, the US Energy Information Administration had projected that the share of renewables in the US electricity generation mix would double to 42% by 2050 from 21% in 2020, driven mainly by wind and solar.
Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2021, US Energy Information Administration
Full decarbonisation of the US electricity sector by 2035 is a key pillar of the Biden administration’s strategy to make the economy carbon neutral by 2050. Electricity generation accounted for the largest share (31%) of US greenhouse gas emissions over 1990-2019, according to the US Environmental Protection Agency.
Source: US Environmental Protection Agency.
Note: Exhibit shows greenhouse gas emissions and sinks (negative values) by source in the US from 1990 to 2019, in million tonnes of CO2 equivalents. All electric power emissions are grouped under “Electricity generation”, so other sectors such as “Residential” and “Commercial” show only non-electric sources, such as burning oil or gas for heating.
More still needs to be done
On the current trajectory, even with the latest pledges at the climate summit in April, the world faces a temperature rise of around 2.4°C by 2100, still well above the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal, according to the latest projections by Climate Action Tracker published in May 2021.
Latest estimates of the damage to the world economy without stronger action are vast. On the current path, the world could lose nearly 10% of its GDP to climate change by mid-century, according to a new study published by reinsurer Swiss Re.
Globally, the threat of potentially disastrous climate change in the not-so-distant future is exerting increasingly greater influence on key policymakers and industry leaders.
Of the world’s 2,000 largest public companies, more than one-fifth (21%) have now committed to reduce emissions to net zero, a report published in March 2021 shows.
The focus on reducing carbon dioxide emissions among other greenhouse gases is driven by their significant contribution to global warming.
Source: US Environmental Protection Agency.
Note: Exhibit shows the amount of radiative forcing (a net warming influence) caused by greenhouse gases, based on changes in their concentration in the Earth’s atmosphere since 1750. On the right vertical axis, radiative forcing has been converted to the Annual Greenhouse Gas Index, set to 1.0 for 1990.
Biden’s recently announced American Jobs Plan includes over USD600 billion of proposed climate related spending as well as other measures to accelerate the decarbonisation of the US economy, including eliminating tax benefits for the fossil fuel industry while extending tax incentives for renewable power.
Source: White House statement on the American Jobs Plan; published 31 March 2021.
The US Department of Energy also recently announced a goal to cut the cost of solar power generation by 60% by 2030.
Overall, we expect to see the current powerful climate-related political momentum continue in the coming months, with more policy announcements and commitments by the US, China, and other major economies ahead of the UN Climate Change Conference (“COP26”) meeting in November.
As policymakers worldwide continue to strengthen their response to the threat of climate change, new risks and opportunities are emerging for businesses and investors, including opportunities in renewable energy as well as decarbonisation technologies such as carbon capture and storage.
Less-obvious examples that also offer excellent opportunities for long term secular growth are companies with indirect exposure to the ongoing decarbonisation of manufacturing, transport, construction and urban design. These include suppliers of specialised chemicals, chips or other critical components used in clean-air systems to reduce emissions from vehicles and industrial plants and to produce batteries for electric vehicles, as well as sophisticated automation systems to reduce wastage and improve energy efficiency in buildings or manufacturing facilities.
Overall, global efforts to pursue sustainable, climate-resilient development paths and reduce the threat of climate change through emissions reduction and adaptation are likely to drive wide-ranging, significant changes throughout society. Companies slow to anticipate and adjust to these changes risk being gradually sidelined by investors or, in the extreme, having their operating models upended; those that adapt successfully will benefit from the reshaped economic landscape and enjoy more sustainable business prospects, with a better chance to prosper.
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Version: July 2020