Macroeconomics

China's Bullish 2025 Targets

06 March 2025 • 3 mins read

Lan Fo’an, China's Finance Minister, attends a press conference during the second session of the 14th National People's Congress (NPC) in Beijing. AFP.

  • China’s National People's Congress announced bullish targets for 2025 signalling further stimulus is likely if US tariffs cause China’s growth to falter.
  • Despite US’ tariffs rising by a further 10% this week, China’s 2025 GDP target was kept at 5% and its budget deficit was increased to 4% of GDP.
  • To also support China’s growth, Beijing only retaliated modestly to the latest US actions by adding 10-15% tariffs on US agricultural exports only and targeting firms with little activity in China.
  • We think this year’s 20% rise in US tariffs may shave up to 1% off China’s GDP, cutting growth from 5.0% in 2024 to 4.2% now. By keeping its 5% growth target, Beijing thus seems ready to provide further stimulus this year to the benefit of Chinese makets.

The National People's Congress (NPC) announced bullish targets for 2025 signalling Beijing may provide further stimulus this year if US tariff rises cause China’s growth to falter.

Source: Bank of Singapore, Bloomberg

Despite the Trump administration increasing tariffs by another 10% this week, China’s 2025 GDP growth target was kept at 5.0%, the same as its goal in 2024. As the first chart shows, China’s economy expanded by 5.2% in 2023 and 5.0% in 2024. Thus, officials seem intent on keeping growth steady despite the worsening outlook for global trade,

To support China’s growth, the NPC increased the budget deficit from 3.0% of GDP in 2024 to 4.0% of GDP in 2025, its highest level in three decades.

Source: Bank of Singapore, Bloomberg

To finance extra government spending, the NPC raised the annual quota of local government special bonds (LGSB) from CNY3.9 trillion last year to CNY4.4 trillion this year and the quota of central government special bonds (CGSB) from CNY1.0 trillion to CNY1.8 trillion.

The NPC also announced this year’s inflation target would be lowered from its traditional 3% level to 2% for 2025 - a realistic move given inflation is only 0.5% currently despite interest rates having being cut steadily since the pandemic as the chart above shows.

Last, to also support China’s growth outlook, Beijing only retaliated modestly to the Trump administration’s latest trade actions by adding 10-15% tariffs on US agricultural exports only and by targeting firms with little actual activity in China.

China’s restrained response signals Beijing is willing to negotiate with Washington and wants to avoid escalating trade tensions further. Its stance appears prudent as we forecast this year’s 20% rise in US tariffs may shave up to 1% off China’s GDP, cutting growth from 5.0% in 2024 to 4.2% in 2025.

By keeping its annual GDP growth target at 5.0%, despite Washington having already increased tariffs by 20% so far this year, Beijing thus seems ready to provide further stimulus to support growth and China’s financial markets this year.

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Author:
Mansoor Mohi-uddin
Chief Economist
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