- 美國就業計劃包括6,000多億美元的支出,重點旨在改善氣候適應能力及令美國經濟減碳
- 甚至需要投入更多:詳細的研究顯示,截至2030年,至少需要投資2.5萬億美元的新資本,方可令美國走上淨零排放之路
- 需要大量的投資來確保全球排放量在2030年前後達到峰值
2021年3月31日,美國總統拜登宣佈一項2.3萬億美元的支出計劃,重點是實現美國基礎設施現代化,並在長期內保持經濟增長。
該計劃包括6,000多億美元的支出,主要用於發展電動汽車行業及清潔技術,推動電網及建築部門減碳,以及提高美國基礎設施的氣候適應能力。這標誌著拜登在應對氣候變化方面的最新舉措,其將推動美國聯邦政府全力投入應對氣候變化所帶來的生存威脅。
資料來源:《白宮關於美國就業計劃的聲明》;2021年3月31日發佈。
白宮在2021年3月31日一份概述美國就業計劃的聲明中表示:「拜登政府用於重建基礎設施的每一分錢均會用於預防、減少及抵禦氣候危機的影響。」
該計劃專注於氣候方面的支出舉措包括:
- 投資1,740億美元,旨在透過稅收優惠、安裝50萬個充電站以及將整個美國聯邦政府車隊更換為電動汽車等一系列舉措,促進電動汽車的採用。
- 1,650億美元用於擴大、改善公共交通及鐵路系統,並實現電氣化。
- 1,500億美元用於推動電網及其他基礎設施的現代化及提高氣候適應能力。
- 2,130億美元用於改善建築行業,包括改造家庭及商業建築物,提高節能效率及氣候適應能力。
- 1,800億美元用於新技術研發,包括清潔能源創新。
整體而言,這些建議旨在實現幾個關鍵目標,讓美國經濟在2050年前步入淨零排放之路,其中包括:
- 美國的電力行業在2035年之前全面減碳。
- 建築行業的碳足跡在2035年之前減少一半。
- 過渡到全面採用零排放汽車,以實現交通行業的減碳目標,該行業是美國最大的溫室氣體排放源。
除擬議的綠色投資外,該計劃亦包括加速美國經濟減碳的措施,包括取消對化石燃料行業的稅收優惠,同時擴大對可再生能源發電的稅收優惠。
與本行的觀點一致,即總統拜登將舉整個政府之力來推進他的氣候議程,美國能源部近期亦宣佈一個目標,即到2030年前將太陽能發電的成本降低60%。
本行預計,在今年11月舉行的第26屆聯合國氣候變化大會(COP26)國際氣候峰會之前,這些努力將為全球應對氣候變化的舉措增加動力,預計各國將在峰會上提出其實現《巴黎協定》目標的最新承諾。
資料來源:美國淨零排放中期報告,普林斯頓大學;2020年12月發佈。
附註:包括金融投資決策前的已投資資本及對2030年在建但在之後幾年投入使用的項目所承諾的資本。所有數值應被視為數量級的估計。研究並未作出估計的其他潛在重大資本支出包括,建立生物能源作物以及鋼鐵及水泥以外其他行業的減碳措施,非二氧化碳溫室氣體減排工作,以及建立經強化的陸地碳匯。
包括通用電氣、谷歌、麥當勞、微軟、耐克及沃爾瑪等重量級企業在內的300多間企業,最近在2021年4月13日簽署了一封致總統拜登的公開信,呼籲白宮在2030年前將美國的溫室氣體排放量從2005年的水準至少減少50%。
信中寫道:「為了恢復美國作為全球領導者的地位,我們需要以所需的速度及規模來解決氣候危機。倘若您為我們國家設立更高的宏偉目標,我們將會提高我們自己的目標,以推動美國在這方面的長足發展。」
需要投入更多、更多的資源
最新研究表明,即使目前已提出最新的氣候支出提案(有待國會批准),但未來幾年仍有很多工作要做。
根據普林斯頓大學在2020年12月發表的一項關於淨零排放過渡路徑的詳細研究,要使美國經濟邁向符合《巴黎協定》關於在本世紀末將全球變暖限制在1.5攝氏度的目標,在2030年之前至少需要投入2.5萬億美元的新資本。
研究表明,這些所需的投資涵蓋了發電(特別是風能及太陽能)、建築、電器、車輛及工業,以及有利的基礎設施及先進的清潔技術,如碳捕獲,從而為2030年以後完成向淨零排放的過渡創造選擇條件(參見圖表2)。
建立全球聯盟
正如預期,拜登政府已加緊努力,在全球應對氣候變化的鬥爭中重獲領導地位。最近幾週,拜登的國際氣候特使克里(John Kerry)會見了包括中國、印度及韓國在內多個國家的高級官員,就如何應對氣候危機達成共識。
克里是一位備受尊敬的美國前國務卿,他是拜登政府首位訪問中國的高級官員,這讓市場燃起希望,即雖然世界上兩個最大的經濟體在其他領域仍存在分歧,但將在應對氣候變化領域達成共識。
2021年4月17日,在克里與中國氣候變化特使解振華在上海會晤後,兩國發表聯合聲明表示:「美中致力於相互合作並與其他國家合作應對氣候危機,必須按其嚴峻性、緊迫性的要求加以應對。」根據該聲明,中美都同意繼續討論「2020年代的具體減排行動」,以符合《巴黎協定》的目標。
兩國亦承諾在即將於今年11月舉行的COP26國際氣候峰會之前,制定長期戰略以實現碳中和或溫室氣體淨零排放。
爭奪氣候領導權
中國在開發及推廣清潔技術方面投下巨資,這正在給美國施加壓力,迫使其加大投資力度,進一步推動全球減碳努力(見圖表3)。
資料來源:BloombergNEF,《2021年能源轉型投資趨勢》。
注:CCS = 碳捕獲和儲存。
例如在風力發電方面,中國已成為全球領導者,且具有很大優勢。
根據全球風能協會全球風能協會2021年3月25日公佈的最新資料,中國的風力發電裝機總量為288吉瓦,為美國122吉瓦的兩倍多,並超過了歐洲、非洲、中東及拉丁美洲的總和253吉瓦。
中國繼續大力投資。去年,中國貢獻了全球四分之三以上的新增風電裝機容量(見圖表4)。
資料來源:全球風能協會,《2021年全球風能報告》。
本行預計,未來幾年,世界超級大國之間在新技術方面的優勢競爭將加劇,從而推動清潔能源及減碳技術的進一步快速發展。
馬里蘭大學全球可持續發展中心馬里蘭大學全球可持續發展中心2021年4月發表的分析報告指出:「美國在2030年之前的氣候目標從根本上取決於其迅速轉向零排放發電的能力。」
中國最新的五年計劃強調,將通過鼓勵發展能源密集程度較低的產業,提高非化石燃料在中國經濟中的使用比重,採用包括電動汽車在內的新技術,進一步支持綠色發展和降低碳排放。
為何如此緊迫地進行投資?
根據氣候行動追蹤組織 (Climate Action Tracker) 在2020年12月發佈的最新預測,按照目前的氣溫變化軌跡,到2100年全球氣溫將上升約2.6攝氏度,遠遠超過巴黎協定的1.5攝氏度的目標。
要在本世紀中實現世界經濟的低碳化,以達到巴黎協定的氣候目標,這需要進一步大幅削減所有經濟活動(包括發電、工業、交通和農業)的碳排放。
尤其是,在未來幾年內需要大量投資,以確保全球排放量在2030年前後達到峰值——政府間氣候變化專門委員會認為這是一個關鍵的里程碑,以讓世界經濟在本世紀末將全球變暖限制在1.5攝氏度(見圖表5)。
資料來源:能源過渡委員會、政府間氣候變化專門委員會、新加坡銀行。
附註:圖中顯示了將全球升溫幅度限制在1.5攝氏度的二氧化碳淨排放量模型路徑,綠色顯示排放量受限或無過度排放,藍色顯示過度排放。
這將意味著世界經濟的運作方式將發生深度的結構性變化,並為企業帶來重大顛覆和新的機遇。
全球部分規模最大的資產管理公司正在調整定位,以把握這些機會。2021年4月13日,貝萊德與新加坡的淡馬錫控股公司宣佈一項新的夥伴關係——減碳合作夥伴,初步承諾6億美元,以投資於初創公司,這些公司擁有旨在加速向淨零排放世界經濟過渡的產品和技術。
正如本行在之前報告中所強調,減少排放和浪費、重複利用自然資源、提供支援人類活動全面減碳的產品和服務的公司,有望引起投資者更大的興趣及更多的投資資本,並將日漸受益於全球政府加強政策應對氣候變化的趨勢。
根據聯合國2021年2月26日發佈的最新報告,全球一致行動使世界經濟減碳意味著全球溫室氣體排放有可能在2030年前達到峰值。
整體而言,我們預計在未來幾個月內,與氣候相關的政治勢頭將進一步加大。在11月將舉行的聯合國氣候變化大會(UN Climate Change Conference)或COP26之前,美國、中國及其他主要經濟體將公佈更多政策聲明及承諾。
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No person or entity in Taiwan has been authorised to provide the information and to offer the service in Taiwan. Thailand: Please note that neither Bank of Singapore Limited nor any other entities in the Bank of Singapore Limited’s group maintains any licences, authorisations or registrations in Thailand nor is any of the material and information contained, or the relevant securities or products specified herein approved or registered in Thailand. Interests in the relevant securities or products may not be offered or sold within Thailand. The attached information has been provided at your request for informational purposes only and shall not be copied or redistributed to any other person without the prior consent of Bank of Singapore Limited or its relevant entities and in no way constitutes an offer, solicitation, advertisement or advice of, or in relation to, the relevant securities or products by Bank of Singapore Limited or any other entities in Bank of Singapore Limited’s group in Thailand. The Philippines: The information contained in this document is not intended to constitute a public offering of securities under the Securities Regulation Code of the Philippines. Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC): Bank of Singapore Limited has a branch registered in the Dubai International Financial Centre ("DIFC") which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). Bank of Singapore Limited (DIFC Branch) is not a financial institution licensed in the United Arab Emirates outside of the DIFC and does not undertake banking or financial activities in the United Arab Emirates nor is it licensed to do so outside of the DIFC. This material is provided for information purposes only and it is general information not specific in any way to any particular investor, investor type, strategy, investment need or other financial circumstance. As such this information is not financial advice or a financial promotion, nor is it intended to influence an investor's decision to invest. It is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The material is only intended for persons who fulfill the criteria to be classified as “Professional Clients” as defined under the DFSA rules and should not be reviewed, received, provided to or relied upon by any other person. United Arab Emirates (U.A.E): The information contained herein is exclusively addressed to the recipient. The offering of certain products in this document has not been and will not be registered with the Central Bank of United Arab Emirates or Securities & Commodities Authority in the United Arab Emirates. Any products in this document that are being offered or sold do not constitute a public offering or distribution of securities under the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. This document is not intended for circulation or distribution in or into the UAE, other than to persons in the UAE to whom such circulation or distribution is permitted by, or is exempt from the requirements of, the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. The distribution of the information contained herein by the recipient is prohibited. Where applicable, this document relates to securities which are listed outside of the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and the Dubai Financial Market. The Bank of Singapore Limited is not authorized to provide investment research regarding securities listed on the exchanges of the United Arab Emirates which are outside of the DIFC. 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Brunei: This document has not been delivered to, licensed or permitted by the Autoriti Monetari Brunei Darussalam, the authority as designated under the Brunei Darussalam Securities Markets Order, 2013 and the Banking Order, 2006; nor has it been registered with the Registrar of Companies, Registrar of International Business Companies or the Brunei Darussalam Ministry of Finance. The products mentioned in this document are not registered, licensed or permitted by the Autoriti Monetari Brunei Darussalam or by any other government agency or under any law in Brunei Darussalam. Any offers, acceptances, sales and allotments of the products shall be made outside Brunei Darussalam.