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  • 投资
  • 2021年08月23 日

全球变暖如何影响 未来市场前景

  • 具有里程碑意义的气候变化科学评估显示地表正以2000多年来最快的速度变暖
  • 证实了人类活动产生的碳排放与全球变暖之间的直接关系
  • 本行发现清洁能源技术领域的新投资机会,如氢能等能够加速世界经济脱碳的新能源投资

202189日,政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) 发表了一份具有里程碑意义的关于气候变化的现有科学知识评估。

由于各国政府在11月格拉斯哥COP26关键气候峰会举行前就已作出加强脱碳的承诺,本行预计该报告中的主要结论将成为全球气候政策的重要驱动因素。

重要的是,该报告摘要向各政府提供了其主要发现,并取得了全球195个国家的政府代表逐行批准,这增强了该报告的可信度,也为国际气候谈判达成共识奠定了基础。

今年,全球几个主要经济体已宣布了多项重大新脱碳倡议,如中国的全国碳排放交易体系,欧洲的Fit for 55一揽子政策法规,以加速欧盟经济实现整体脱碳,以及美国关于到2030年将碳排放量减半的承诺

本行预计,大部分短期脱碳工作将集中于减少发电过程中的碳排放量,以及实现其他行业(如汽车及交通运输行业)的电动化转型。本行发现清洁能源技术(如氢能)中涌现的新机会越来越多。越来越多的企业为这种能源转型做好准备

最新的IPCC报告,即 第六次评估报告 (AR6) ,内容涵盖自IPCC上次气候科学评估后八年期间的新研究、观察和技术进步。这份4000页的报告由来自65个国家/地区的234名作者共同编撰而成,参考了1.4万份科学出版物。

该报告的主要发现包括:

  • 地表正以2000多年来的最快速度变暖,目前地表温度是约5万年以来之最。

自1850年以来,每四十年的十年间气温变化都呈递增式升高(图表1)。

图表1:目前全球变暖的速度为2000多年来之最

资料来源:政府间气候变化专门委员会第六次评估报告(2021年)。

注:在古气候记录的基础上重建的全球地表温度变化(实灰线,1-2000年)和直接观测结果(实黑线,1850-2020年),两者均对比1850–1900年间数据,并以十年平均值呈现)

人类活动预计导致1850-1900年到2010-2019年的全球地表温度升高1.07°CIPCC在报告随附的一份声明中称:“我们至少需要追溯到上一个间冰期,即大约12.5万年前,才能找到数百年来全球地表温度比现在更高的证据”。

  • 人类活动产生的二氧化碳累积排放量与其所造成的全球变暖之间存在着直接的近线性关系。

这种直接关系意味着,无论何种气温水平,为稳定人类引起的全球变暖趋势,有必要将全球二氧化碳排放量减少至净零水平。

图表2:全球变暖呈线性增长,几乎与二氧化碳排放量趋势一致,这意味着必须减少净排放量至零水平才能防止气候进一步变暖

资料来源:政府间气候变化专门委员会第六次评估报告(2021年)。

注:五种示例场景 "SSPx-y" 覆盖科学文献中所包含人类行为可能导致的未来气候变化发展情形。"SSPx" 指该场景所描述的相关社会经济趋势下的共享社会经济发展路径 (SSP) ,‘y’指2100年该场景将产生的辐射强迫大致水平(衡量大气层中的温室气体对地球表面造成的热效应,瓦特/平方米)。

这也意味着将全球变暖维持在一个特定水平(如《巴黎协定》中的1.5°C目标)须将二氧化碳排放量进一步限制在“碳预算”之内。

  • 若将全球变暖限制在0°C范围内,且概率为50%,剩余的全球碳预算估计不超过13500亿吨。

若将全球变暖限制在1.5°C范围内,且概率为50%,剩余的碳预算估计仅有5000亿吨二氧化碳。根据全球碳计划对2020年全球排放量的估计(即400亿吨二氧化碳),按照目前的速度,剩余碳预算仅相当于12.5年的排放量,或者根据联合国环境规划署发布的2020排放差距报告,若基于2019年591亿吨的二氧化碳排放量,剩余碳预算则相当于不到10年的排放量。

图表3:将全球变暖幅度限制在1.5°C,则全球剩余碳预算估计不超过5000亿吨二氧化碳,按2019年的排放量计,相当于不到10年的排放量

资料来源:政府间气候变化专门委员会第六次评估报告(2021年)。

注:根据联合国环境规划署《2020排放差距报告》,2019年全球二氧化碳排放量已达591亿吨。

主要影响是什么?

按照目前的趋势,极端天气事件——比以往更加频发且更严重——发生的概率更大,且强度也将加剧。

工业时代前预计每50年才会发生一次的陆地极端高温天气,现在发生的可能性增加了4.8倍,而且随着全球进一步变暖,此类高温天气将会更频繁地出现,并将造成更严重的破坏。降雨、暴风雪以及干旱等极端天气同样也会变得更加频繁且严重(图表4)。

世界各地极端天气的发生频率不断上升——例如,2021年初得克萨斯州出现史无前例的寒冬冻结了其电网的关键部件,导致大面积停电,数百万人断电断水。最近在中国河南省欧洲部分地区也发生了严重的洪灾,造成200多人死亡,100多万人被迫撤离。这些极端事件提醒人们,如果不升级基础设施和其他经济领域抵御气候变化的韧性,最终的成本可能远大于灾难来临前提前采取气候适应和防御措施的成本。

图表4:未来极端天气事件的发生将更频繁——而且强度将更大

资料来源:政府间气候变化专门委员会第六次评估报告(2021年)。

注:1850-1900年是最早能够获取完整全球地表温度观测评估数据的时期,并且该观测评估数据被视为工业时代前的大致情况。

美国总统气候问题特使约翰·克里表示:“过去几十年,科学一直明确,且最新的报告非常清楚地表明——不仅目前存在气候危机,这一危机正在加剧。”

“世界目前需要的是切实地采取行动。各大经济体必须在这关键的十年中采取积极的气候行动。”

新机遇涌现

要在2050年之前实现世界经济脱碳,以达到巴黎协定的气候目标,这需要进一步大幅削减所有经济活动(包括发电、工业、交通和农业)的碳排放量(见气候变化——低碳转型)。

想要减少排放量,则必须在未来几年内加大投资力度,以确保全球碳排放量在2030年前后达到峰值——要使世界经济在本世纪末将全球变暖幅度控制在1.5°C,这会是一个关键的里程碑。

本行认为,全球对于寻求具有气候韧性的可持续发展道路,减轻气候变化威胁所付出的努力,将在今后几年推动全球经济发生广泛而显著的变化。

这意味着世界经济的运作方式将发生重大结构性变化,也将为企业带来颠覆性变化的同时创造新的机会。本行预计对于清洁能源及相关技术方面的政府政策和投资,中国、美国和欧洲之间的地缘政治竞争,将成为主要驱动力。

这些投资需覆盖发电(尤其是风能和太阳能发电)、建筑、电器、交通和工业,以及相关支持性基础设施和先进的清洁技术(如碳捕获和储存),从而为2030年后完成向净零排放的转型创造有利条件。

普林斯顿大学最近的一项研究显示,美国若要在2030年之前实现经济向净零排放转型至少需要投入2.5万亿美元的新增资金

同时,根据清华大学气候变化与可持续发展研究院的一项研究,预计中国在2020-2050年期间需要投入超过100万亿元人民币用于新能源基础设施建设,才可能如期实现《巴黎协定》中的1.5°C目标。

欧洲方面,低碳转型已在顺利推进,欧盟已公布了被称为“Fit for 55”的一揽子方案,该方案辐射范围广,旨在从根本上重塑欧盟未来十年甚至更长远的经济。

本行发现清洁能源技术(如氢能)中涌现的新机会越来越多,氢能作为一种低碳能源,受到各类经济活动(如发电、交通、建筑物供暖和供电)的广泛应用。

中国内蒙古地区最近批准了一项新的氢能项目,该项目每年将利用1.85千兆瓦太阳能和370兆瓦的风能生产66,900吨氢气。

欧洲方面,欧盟正努力将可再生氢气的使用纳入欧盟能源结构,包括计划在欧盟各地安装至少6千兆瓦可再生氢电解器,并在2024年前生产高达100万吨的可再生氢气。

彭博新能源财经 (BloombergNEF) 最近的一项分析表明,除非碳捕获和储存技术发展成熟,能够使煤、石油和天然气等传统化石燃料继续作为能源结构中的重要组成部分,否则要想世界经济到2050年实现净零排目标,对氢能的需求将急剧上升。

近年来,可再生能源成本的骤跌是清洁能源技术不断得到广泛采用的关键驱动因素。

2020年,尽管疫情影响严重,但全球在可再生能源、供暖和运输电动化以及其他能源转型上的支出仍创下5,010亿美元新高。本行预计,未来几年这一数字将进一步增长。

随着全球政府积极响应应对气候变化威胁的号召,预见这些变化并能成功适应的企业,将在重塑经济格局的过程中受益

对企业和投资者而言,各种新的机会正在涌现,包括碳捕获和储存等脱碳技术,以及可再生能源方面的机会。

鉴于全球脱碳举措包罗万象,世界各地相关支持性法律法规快速推进,虽然推进速度不一,但本行仍然相信,多元化的投资策略中,增加可能将受益于全球向碳中和经济转型的资产敞口,将是比较恰当的投资策略。

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No person or entity in Taiwan has been authorised to provide the information and to offer the service in Taiwan. Thailand: Please note that neither Bank of Singapore Limited nor any other entities in the Bank of Singapore Limited’s group maintains any licences, authorisations or registrations in Thailand nor is any of the material and information contained, or the relevant securities or products specified herein approved or registered in Thailand. Interests in the relevant securities or products may not be offered or sold within Thailand. The attached information has been provided at your request for informational purposes only and shall not be copied or redistributed to any other person without the prior consent of Bank of Singapore Limited or its relevant entities and in no way constitutes an offer, solicitation, advertisement or advice of, or in relation to, the relevant securities or products by Bank of Singapore Limited or any other entities in Bank of Singapore Limited’s group in Thailand. The Philippines: The information contained in this document is not intended to constitute a public offering of securities under the Securities Regulation Code of the Philippines.  Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC): Bank of Singapore Limited has a branch registered in the Dubai International Financial Centre ("DIFC") which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). Bank of Singapore Limited (DIFC Branch) is not a financial institution licensed in the United Arab Emirates outside of the DIFC and does not undertake banking or financial activities in the United Arab Emirates nor is it licensed to do so outside of the DIFC. This material is provided for information purposes only and it is general information not specific in any way to any particular investor, investor type, strategy, investment need or other financial circumstance. As such this information is not financial advice or a financial promotion, nor is it intended to influence an investor's decision to invest. It is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The material is only intended for persons who fulfill the criteria to be classified as “Professional Clients” as defined under the DFSA rules and should not be reviewed, received, provided to or relied upon by any other person. United Arab Emirates (U.A.E): The information contained herein is exclusively addressed to the recipient. The offering of certain products in this document has not been and will not be registered with the Central Bank of United Arab Emirates or Securities & Commodities Authority in the United Arab Emirates. Any products in this document that are being offered or sold do not constitute a public offering or distribution of securities under the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. This document is not intended for circulation or distribution in or into the UAE, other than to persons in the UAE to whom such circulation or distribution is permitted by, or is exempt from the requirements of, the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. The distribution of the information contained herein by the recipient is prohibited. Where applicable, this document relates to securities which are listed outside of the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and the Dubai Financial Market.  The Bank of Singapore Limited is not authorized to provide investment research regarding securities listed on the exchanges of the United Arab Emirates which are outside of the DIFC.  United Kingdom: In the United Kingdom, this document is being made available only to the person or the entity to whom it is directed being persons to whom it may lawfully be directed under applicable laws and regulations of the United Kingdom (such persons are hereinafter referred to as ‘relevant persons’). Accordingly, this document is communicated only to relevant persons.  Persons who are not relevant persons must not act on or rely on this document or any of its contents. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. Relevant persons in receipt of this document must not distribute, publish, reproduce, or disclose this document (in whole or in part) to any person who is not a relevant person.  United States of America: This product may not be sold or offered within the United States or to U.S. persons.

Brunei: This document has not been delivered to, licensed or permitted by the Autoriti Monetari Brunei Darussalam, the authority as designated under the Brunei Darussalam Securities Markets Order, 2013 and the Banking Order, 2006; nor has it been registered with the Registrar of Companies, Registrar of International Business Companies or the Brunei Darussalam Ministry of Finance. The products mentioned in this document are not registered, licensed or permitted by the Autoriti Monetari Brunei Darussalam or by any other government agency or under any law in Brunei Darussalam. Any offers, acceptances, sales and allotments of the products shall be made outside Brunei Darussalam.