- 投资
- 2020年08月11 日
美国总统大选：结果和影响
By 李依莱
投资策略部主管
本届美国总统大选结果的不确性较往届选举更大
目前新冠状病毒(Covid-19)持续爆发，中美两国在多个领域的冲突升级，且种族平等问题令全国多个地方陷入紧张局势。该等问题不断演变为焦点问题，再加上税收、社会和能源政策等传统话题，令即将于2020年11月举行的美国总统大选非同寻常且难以预测。
目前全国民调显示，前副总统拜登领先总统特朗普(如图2所示)，预测市场亦反映相若的结果，即拜登胜选的概率略微低于60%。
不过随着疫情感染率开始下降，以及公布数据显示美国经济和劳动力市场持续改善，总统特朗普的支持率在上周回升。
总统特朗普最近亦加大政府对中国的攻击力度，而近期美国就对中国应用程式TikTok和微信下达禁令，这表明特朗普在政治上的反华议题加强。此举有利于巩固大选基础；皮尤研究中心显示目前73%的美国成年人士对中国持负面看法，因此亦可能有助吸引美国公众的支持
不过目前距离大选还有三个月，变数甚多。如果对总统特朗普有利的局势能够持续，则两名领先的候选人在大选中可能势均力敌。
在拜登胜选的情境下，我们认为最有可能的结果为民主党掌控国会，其次为两党陷入僵局(即共和党在参议院占多数席位，民主党在众议院占多数席位)。
在特朗普胜选的情境下，我们认为最有可能的结果是维持现状，即共和党在参议院占多数席位，而民主党在众议院占多数席位；其次为民主党掌控国会，不过可能性较小；然后为共和党掌控国会，虽然该情况可能性更小，但仍有可能发生。
根据结果分析美国总统大选的影响
我们重点关注对金融市场和经济影响最大的关键情境和政策，因此我们基于三大情境制定框架：
a)拜登胜选，民主党掌控国会
如果拜登胜选并全面掌控国会，即民主党控制参议院和众议院，那么新总统将在补充关键职位和推动重大政策改革方面享有明确授权。
我们认为，民主党的议程可能包括增税，这对美国经济、企业盈利和市场反应的影响最大。
拜登已提议将企业税率从21%提高到28%，增幅达7%；而先前特朗普将税率从35%减至21%，降幅为14%；所以此举将税率再回升7%。拜登亦拟减少全球无形资产低税所得的减税额，并对账面利润超过1亿美元的企业征收15%的最低税率。我们估计，仅提高企业税就可能令标普500指数的盈利下跌5%-6%，而提高全球无形资产低税所得税和征收15%的最低税率，将可能令盈利分别下跌5%-6%和0%-1%。整体而言，我们认为拜登的提议可能令标普500指数的盈利减少12%-13%。
拜登亦提议提高对富人加税，这亦将损害奢侈品零售、住宅房地产以及高收入消费市场。拜登提议将联邦最低工资提高到每小时15美元，这亦将损害劳动密集型企业的利润率，不过亦会推动消费增长。
虽然这个情境确实令投资者担忧，且民主党大获全胜的机会增加或会导致大选前短期波动，但我们并不认为这一切均是坏事。尽管拜登提议增税，但整体政策是透过净支出的扩张性财政议程。除了废除对州政府和地方政府的税务上限，拜登亦计划大幅扩大政府在基础设施、健康护理、清洁能源和环境方面的支出，这将导致财政赤字出现净扩张。
在此情境下，我们预计市场对人民币的担忧将会减小，由于市场认为拜登的扩张性财政政策可能导致再通胀，因此债券收益率出于本能反应可能上升，但从长期来看，有望支持大宗商品和风险资产。
b)拜登胜选，共和党于参议院占多数席位
如果国会陷入僵局，拜登当选总统并全面推行议程的能力将受到限制。如果共和党于参议院占多数，将对在确认内阁职位、联储局和许多监管机构提名方面占关键作用。尽管新总统通常产生很大的影响力，不过参议院需要与总统充分洽谈议程，否则在2022年中期选举时选民可能出现不满情绪。
在该情境下，拜登当选总统并可能推动对科技和网络的中立监管，不过亦可能在环境和金融监管政策方面有所作为。在国会陷入僵局的情况下，拜登更加难以撤回特朗普的《减税与就业法案》的减税政策。
我们认为，该情境可能有利于全球市场，这是因为拜登总统对中国的立场可能更具战略性且变动更少，而随着中美紧张关系进入新的阶段，这将减轻人民币和全球风险资产的压力。在该情境下，特朗普的减税政策不太可能被撤回，这表明避险情绪及美元走强程度有限。该等局势将利好新兴市场。
c)特朗普胜选并大致维持现状
如果特朗普胜选，我们预计在第二个任期内将大致延续现状，政策方向不会发生重大变化。
如果特朗普当选总统并且民主党掌控国会，即使特朗普可行使否决权从而防止先前推行的政策遭重大撤回，但推动政策变革的能力将进一步受到遏制。
如果特朗普胜选且共和党掌控国会，在此情境下，税收2.0版计划下的《减税与就业法案》重大条款可能延长，这表明将会进一步财政扩张。虽然出现该情境的机会几乎不大，但仍有可能出现。
根据波动情况以配置投资组合；透过将成长型/动量型股票轮换至周期型/价值型股票，从而调整投资组合
美国总统大选通常在8月、9月和10月成为市场的主要推动力。股市从3月底开始连续4个月大幅反弹后，目前已接近新高，而与大选相关的不确定性是未来股市波动的潜在推动因素。如图4所示，分析标普500指数自1928年以来的表现可见，在各选举年的7月至11月期间，股票波幅通常平均增加30%。
另一个值得注意的风险是，总统特朗普在最近的采访中表示，拒绝承诺接受2020年的大选结果及确保和平交接总统职位，过往的现任总统均无出现这个情况。如果得票率相差甚低，总统特朗普长期就选举结果提出抗议，可能引起市场波动和投资者焦虑。
考虑到风险资产自3月底以来大幅反弹，以及与经济复苏前景和中美紧张局势有关的各种不确定因素(见投资策略：市场正处于决定性时刻)，我们建议投资者确保充分分散投资，并在投资组合中加入对冲措施。除了传统的避险资产(例如黄金)，配置货币对(例如在2020年下半年做多日圆对澳元)亦能有效对冲波幅。
虽然投资者需要继续对主要成长型股进行核心配置，但目前时机适合调整投资组合，将美国大选后可能面临监管压力的成长型和动量型股票(尤其是美国科技股和健康护理股)(见图5)，转换为财政实力稳健、商业模式稳定并有望受益于长期经济复苏的周期型和价值型股票。我们尤其留意到，在大多数潜在大选结果中，周期型股票(例如美国工业)有望普遍受益于基础设施支出增加。
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Please carefully read and make sure that you understand all Risk Disclosures, Selling Restrictions, and Disclaimers. This document must be read together with the relevant Prospectus & Offering Documents &/or Key Fact Statement.
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This document is prepared by Bank of Singapore Limited (Co Reg. No.: 197700866R) (the “Bank”), is for information purposes only, and is not, by itself, intended for anyone other than the recipient. It may contain information proprietary to the Bank which may not be reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part without the Bank’s prior consent. It is not an offer or a solicitation to deal in any of the investment products referred to herein or to enter into any legal relations, nor an advice or by itself a recommendation with respect to such investment products. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, investment experience, financial situation and the particular needs of any recipient or customer. Customers should exercise caution in relation to any potential investment. Customers should independently evaluate each investment product and consider the suitability of such investment product, taking into account customer’s own specific investment objectives, investment experience, financial situation and/or particular needs. Customers will need to decide on their own as to whether or not the contents of this document are suitable for them. If a customer is in doubt about the contents of this document and/or the suitability of any investment products mentioned in this document for the customer, the customer should obtain independent financial, legal and/or tax advice from its professional advisers as necessary, before proceeding to make any investments.
The Bank, its Affiliates and their respective employees are not in the business of providing, and do not provide, tax, accounting or legal advice to any clients. The material contained herein is prepared for informational purposes and is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used or relied upon for tax, accounting or legal advice. Any such client is responsible for consulting his/her own independent advisor as to the tax, accounting and legal consequences associated with his/her investments/transactions based on the client’s particular circumstances.
This document and other related documents have not been reviewed by, registered or lodged as a prospectus, information memorandum or profile statement with the Monetary Authority of Singapore nor any regulator in Hong Kong or elsewhere.
This document may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed in whole or in part to any other person without the Bank’s prior written consent. This document is not intended for distribution to, publication or use by any person in any jurisdiction outside Singapore, Hong Kong, or such other jurisdiction as the Bank may determine in its absolute discretion, where such distribution, publication or use would be contrary to applicable law or would subject the Bank and its related corporations, connected persons, associated persons and/or affiliates (collectively, “Affiliates”) to any registration, licensing or other requirements within such jurisdiction.
Investments in financial instruments or other products carry significant risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Financial instruments or other products denominated in a foreign currency are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which may have an adverse effect on the price or value of an investment in such products. No liability is accepted by the Bank for any loss (whether direct, indirect or consequential) that may arise from any use of the information contained in or derived from this document. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. Any prices provided in this document (other than those that are identified as being historical) are indicative only and do not represent firm quotes as to either price or size. You should contact your local representative directly if you are interested in buying or selling any financial instrument or other product or pursuing any trading strategy, investment strategy or wealth planning structure that may be mentioned in this document.
While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure that the contents of this document have been obtained or derived from sources believed by the Bank and its Affiliates to be reliable, neither the Bank nor its Affiliates has independently verified the accuracy of such source(s). The Bank and its Affiliates and their respective officers, employees, agents and representatives do not make any express or implied representations, warranties or guarantees as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information, data or prevailing state of affairs that are mentioned in this document and do not accept any liability for any loss or damage whatsoever, direct or indirect, arising from or in connection with the use of the contents of this document.
The Bank and its Affiliates may have issued other reports, analyses, or other documents expressing views different from the contents hereof and all views expressed in all reports, analyses and documents are subject to change without notice. The Bank and its Affiliates reserve the right to act upon or use the contents hereof at any time, including before its publication herein.
The author of this document may have discussed the information contained therein with others within or outside the Bank and the author and/or such other Bank personnel may have already acted on the basis of this information (including communicating the information contained herein to other customers of the Bank). The Bank, its personnel (including those with whom the author may have consulted in the preparation of this communication), and other customers of the Bank may be long or short the financial instruments or other products referred to in this document, may have acquired such positions at prices and market conditions that are no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests. The persons providing the information to you may receive commissions, fees, rebates or other non-monetary benefits from any counterparty, broker, agent or another affiliate of the OCBC Group or any other party in respect of any trades or transactions effected for you including in relation to the investments referred to herein.
Bank of Singapore Limited is a licensed bank regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in Singapore. Bank of Singapore Limited, Hong Kong Branch, is an Authorized Institution as defined in the Banking Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap 155), regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority in Hong Kong and a Registered Institution as defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap.571) regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong. Bank of Singapore Limited, its employees and discretionary accounts managed by its Singapore Office may have long or short positions or may be otherwise interested in any of the investment products (including derivatives thereof) referred to in this document and may from time to time dispose of any such investment products. Bank of Singapore Limited forms part of the OCBC Group (being for this purpose Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited and its subsidiaries, related and affiliated companies). OCBC Group, their respective directors and/or employees (collectively “Related Persons”) may or might have in the future interests in the investment products or the issuers mentioned herein. Such interests include effecting transactions in such investment products, and providing broking, investment banking and other financial services to such issuers. OCBC Group and its Related Persons may also be related to, and receive fees from, providers of such investment products.
Bank of Singapore Limited adheres to a group policy (as revised and updated from time to time) that provides how entities in the OCBC Group manage or eliminate any actual or potential conflicts of interest which may impact the impartiality of research reports issued by any research analyst in the OCBC Group.
Past performance is not always indicative of likely or future results. The value of any investment or income may go down as well as up. All investments involve an element of risk, including capital loss. Customers who are interested to invest in such investment products should read the risk disclosures and governing terms and conditions that are set out in the relevant offering documents.
Dual currency investments, structured deposits and other investment products are not insured by the Singapore Deposit Insurance Corporation or the Hong Kong Deposit Protection Scheme.
Applicable to clients booked and/or managed in the Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC) only: The information contained herein is exclusively addressed to the recipient. The offering of certain products in this document has not been and will not be registered with the Central Bank of United Arab Emirates or Securities & Commodities Authority in the United Arab Emirates. Any products in this document that are being offered or sold do not constitute a public offering or distribution of securities under the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. This document is not intended for circulation or distribution in or into the UAE, other than to persons in the UAE to whom such circulation or distribution is permitted by, or is exempt from the requirements of, the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. The distribution of the information contained herein by the recipient is prohibited. Where applicable, this document relates to securities which are listed outside of the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and the Dubai Financial Market. Bank of Singapore Limited is not authorized to provide investment research regarding securities listed on the exchanges of the United Arab Emirates which are outside of the DIFC.
Cross-Border Marketing
Hong Kong SAR: Bank of Singapore Limited is an Authorized Institution as defined in the Banking Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap 155), regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority in Hong Kong and a Registered Institution as defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap. 571), regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong. This document is for information only and is not intended for anyone other than the recipient. It has not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong. It is not by itself an offer or a solicitation to deal in any of the financial products referred to herein or to enter into any legal relations, nor an advice or a recommendation with respect to such financial products. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, investment experience and the particular needs of any recipient or Investor. This document may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed in whole or in part to any other person without the Bank’s prior written consent. This document is not intended for distribution to, publication or use by any person in any jurisdiction outside Hong Kong, or such other jurisdiction as the Bank may determine in its absolute discretion, where such distribution, publication or use would be contrary to applicable law or would subject the Bank and its related corporations, connected persons, associated persons and/or affiliates to any registration, licensing or other requirements within such jurisdiction. Indonesia: The offering of the investment product in reliance of this document is not registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and its implementing regulations, and is not intended to constitute a public offering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and its implementing regulations. According, this investment product may not be offered or sold, directly or indirectly, within Indonesia or to citizens (wherever they are domiciled or located), entities or residents, in any manner which constitutes a public offering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and its implementing regulations. Japan: The information contained in this document is for general reference purposes only. It does not have regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk tolerance and particular needs. Nothing in this document constitutes an offer to buy or sell or an invitation to offer to buy or sell or a recommendation or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or investment. We do not have any intention of conducting regulated business in Japan. You acknowledge that nothing in this document constitutes investment or financial advice or any advice of any nature. Malaysia: Bank of Singapore Limited does not hold any licence, registration or approval to carry on any regulated business in Malaysia (including but not limited to any businesses regulated under the Capital Markets & Services Act 2007 of Malaysia), nor does it hold itself out as carrying on or purport to carry on any such business in Malaysia. Any services provided by Bank of Singapore Limited to residents of Malaysia are provided solely on an offshore basis from outside Malaysia, either as a result of “reverse enquiry” on the part of the Malaysian residents or where Bank of Singapore Limited has been retained outside Malaysia to provide such services. As an integral part of the provision of such services from outside Malaysia, Bank of Singapore Limited may from time to time make available to such residents documents and information making reference to capital markets products (for example, in connection with the provision of fund management or investment advisory services outside of Malaysia). Nothing in such documents or information is intended to be construed as or constitute the making available of, or an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase any such capital markets product. Myanmar: This document and information herein is made available by Bank of Singapore Limited, which is not licensed or registered under the Financial Institutions Law (Law No. 20/2016) or other Myanmar legislation to carry on, nor do they purport to carry on, any regulated activity in Myanmar. The provision of any products and services by Bank of Singapore Limited shall be solely on an offshore basis. You shall ensure that you have and will continue to be fully compliant with all applicable laws in Myanmar when entering into discussion or contracts with Bank of Singapore Limited. Oman: This document does not constitute a public offer of investment, securities or financial services in the Sultanate of Oman, as contemplated by the Commercial Companies Law of Oman (Royal Decree No. 4/1974), Banking Law of Oman (Royal Decree No. 114/2000) or the Capital Market Law of Oman (Royal Decree No. 80/1998) and the Executive Regulations of the Capital Market Law (Ministerial Decision No. 1/2009) or an offer to sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy non-Omani investment products, securities or financial services and products in the Sultanate of Oman. This document is strictly private and confidential. It is being provided to a limited number of sophisticated investors solely to enable them to decide whether or not to make an offer to invest in financial products mentioned in this document, outside of the Sultanate of Oman, upon the terms and subject to the restrictions set out herein and may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose or provided to any person other than the original recipient. Additionally, this document is not intended to lead to the making of any contract within the territory or under the laws of the Sultanate of Oman. The Capital Market Authority of Oman and the Central Bank of Oman take no responsibility for the accuracy of the statements and information contained in this document or for the performance of the financial products mentioned in this document nor shall they have any liability to any person for damage or loss resulting from reliance on any statement or information contained herein. Russia: The investment products mentioned in this document have not been registered with or approved by the local regulator of any country and are not publicly distributed in Singapore or elsewhere. This document does not constitute or form part of an offer or invitation to the public in any country to subscribe for the products referred to herein. South Korea: The document does not constitute an offer, solicitation or investment advertisement to trade in the investment product referred to in the document. Taiwan: The provision of the information and the offer of the service concerned herewith have not been and will not be registered with the Financial Supervisory Commission of Taiwan pursuant to relevant laws and regulations of Taiwan and may not be provided or offered in Taiwan or in circumstances which requires a prior registration or approval of the Financial Supervisory Commission of Taiwan. No person or entity in Taiwan has been authorised to provide the information and to offer the service in Taiwan. Thailand: Please note that neither Bank of Singapore Limited nor any other entities in the Bank of Singapore Limited’s group maintains any licences, authorisations or registrations in Thailand nor is any of the material and information contained, or the relevant securities or products specified herein approved or registered in Thailand. Interests in the relevant securities or products may not be offered or sold within Thailand. The attached information has been provided at your request for informational purposes only and shall not be copied or redistributed to any other person without the prior consent of Bank of Singapore Limited or its relevant entities and in no way constitutes an offer, solicitation, advertisement or advice of, or in relation to, the relevant securities or products by Bank of Singapore Limited or any other entities in Bank of Singapore Limited’s group in Thailand. The Philippines: The information contained in this document is not intended to constitute a public offering of securities under the Securities Regulation Code of the Philippines. Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC): Bank of Singapore Limited has a branch registered in the Dubai International Financial Centre ("DIFC") which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). Bank of Singapore Limited (DIFC Branch) is not a financial institution licensed in the United Arab Emirates outside of the DIFC and does not undertake banking or financial activities in the United Arab Emirates nor is it licensed to do so outside of the DIFC. This material is provided for information purposes only and it is general information not specific in any way to any particular investor, investor type, strategy, investment need or other financial circumstance. As such this information is not financial advice or a financial promotion, nor is it intended to influence an investor's decision to invest. It is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The material is only intended for persons who fulfill the criteria to be classified as “Professional Clients” as defined under the DFSA rules and should not be reviewed, received, provided to or relied upon by any other person. United Arab Emirates (U.A.E): The information contained herein is exclusively addressed to the recipient. The offering of certain products in this document has not been and will not be registered with the Central Bank of United Arab Emirates or Securities & Commodities Authority in the United Arab Emirates. Any products in this document that are being offered or sold do not constitute a public offering or distribution of securities under the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. This document is not intended for circulation or distribution in or into the UAE, other than to persons in the UAE to whom such circulation or distribution is permitted by, or is exempt from the requirements of, the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. The distribution of the information contained herein by the recipient is prohibited. Where applicable, this document relates to securities which are listed outside of the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and the Dubai Financial Market. The Bank of Singapore Limited is not authorized to provide investment research regarding securities listed on the exchanges of the United Arab Emirates which are outside of the DIFC. United Kingdom: In the United Kingdom, this document is being made available only to the person or the entity to whom it is directed being persons to whom it may lawfully be directed under applicable laws and regulations of the United Kingdom (such persons are hereinafter referred to as ‘relevant persons’). Accordingly, this document is communicated only to relevant persons. Persons who are not relevant persons must not act on or rely on this document or any of its contents. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. Relevant persons in receipt of this document must not distribute, publish, reproduce, or disclose this document (in whole or in part) to any person who is not a relevant person. United States of America: This product may not be sold or offered within the United States or to U.S. persons.
Brunei: This document has not been delivered to, licensed or permitted by the Autoriti Monetari Brunei Darussalam, the authority as designated under the Brunei Darussalam Securities Markets Order, 2013 and the Banking Order, 2006; nor has it been registered with the Registrar of Companies, Registrar of International Business Companies or the Brunei Darussalam Ministry of Finance. The products mentioned in this document are not registered, licensed or permitted by the Autoriti Monetari Brunei Darussalam or by any other government agency or under any law in Brunei Darussalam. Any offers, acceptances, sales and allotments of the products shall be made outside Brunei Darussalam.
