- 全球对碳排放实施更严格的定价标准,以使经济发展与净零排放目标步调一致
- 中国的碳排放交易体系计划于本月上线,这将推动全球在明确碳污染成本方面向前迈进一步
- 欧盟准备宣布对部分进口商品征收碳税
最近的事态发展表明,全球正在不可避免地逐步增加碳排放成本,以加速全球经济的脱碳进程。
将碳污染的成本纳入商业和投资决策,将为促进全球经济活动与气候目标步调一致提供急需的推动力。
新加坡金融管理局局长孟文能 (Ravi Menon) 于2021年5月20日就新成立的碳交易所Climate Impact X(主要通过基于自然的解决方案交易碳信用)发表演讲时表示:“长期以来,世界都没有对碳排放付出过代价,而这一直在稳步地破坏我们的环境,如今已造成了严重的气候威胁。合理的碳定价对于制定适当的减排激励措施而言至关重要。”
根据世界银行的数据(图表1),目前全球共有60多项碳定价举措,覆盖全球温室气体排放量的约21.5%。
价格从低于0.10美元/吨(波兰)到最高137美元/吨(瑞典)不等,但由于涉及的经济部门不同、具体豁免措施和其他政策调整等多种因素,因此很难对各国的价格差异进行比较。
新加坡自2019年起就开始征收每吨5新加坡元的碳税;政府正在审核2023年后的征税水平和发展轨迹,并预计将在明年的预算案中公布结果(请参见新加坡2021年预算案——携手同心,越战越勇)。
图表1:全球已有64项碳定价举措正在实施或计划实施,覆盖21.5%的年度温室气体排放量,还有更多方案正待发现
资料来源:世界银行,截至2021年6月20日的最新数据。
注:排放交易体系 (ETS) 。一旦立法正式通过并明确正式的计划实施日期,则该碳定价举措将被视为“计划实施”。
近年来,随着政府逐步感受到气候变化带来的生存威胁和应对气候变化的迫切性,此类举措的数量迅速增加(图表2)。
中国将在6月底上线备受期待的全国排放交易体系 (ETS) ,该体系将覆盖2225家电力公司,这将成为中国为碳排放于2030年前见顶,2060年实现经济脱碳作出的努力的一部分。一旦实施,该体系将成为全球最大的排放交易体系,覆盖中国约40%的温室气体排放量。
图表2:全球对碳排放实施更严格的定价标准,以使经济发展与净零目标步调一致
资料来源:世界银行。注:排放交易体系 (ETS) 。仅显示推出或取消的排放交易体系或碳税。每项碳定价举措的覆盖范围是根据全球大气研究排放数据库 (EDGAR) 5.0版数据(包括生物燃料排放),按1990-2015年年度全球温室气体排放量的份额表示。
中国国家电视台CCTV的新闻报道,中国还成立了一个由高级官员组成的工作组,负责监督和协调全国范围内的工作,以在2060年之前实现净零排放目标。
该工作组的首次会议于去年5月末举行,由韩正副总理主持,他是中国共产党最高领导层组成的七人政治局常委之一。他强调,中国应寻求全球气候治理的“最大公约数”,携手国际社会共同保护好地球家园。
习近平主席在4月份举行的地球日气候峰会上表示,中国将从2026-2030年开始逐步淘汰煤炭使用,作为减少温室气体排放的举措之一。
中国近期还更新了可通过发行绿色债券融资的经济活动目录,其中完全排除了煤炭和其他化石燃料,明确表明中国的政策意图,计划引导资金流向从化石燃料转向低碳项目。
根据清华大学气候变化与可持续发展研究院的一项研究,预计中国需要超过100万亿元人民币在2020-2050年期间投入新能源基础设施建设,才可能按时实现《巴黎协定》中的1.5°C目标。
全球碳排放定价
最新的事态发展还表明,越晚实施碳定价计划的国家,将越难进入主要出口市场,或所需成本将更高。
欧盟准备对部分进口商品征收碳税,或出台“碳边界调整机制”,因为这类商品不像欧盟内部生产的商品已含类似的碳成本。
据报道,可能将针对进口钢铁、水泥和铝征收碳边境税。受影响的企业可能需按照2005年推出的欧盟排放交易体系现行的价格购买碳信用,目前的现货价格约为每吨50欧元。
这与本行的长期观点一致,即欧盟对脱碳实施强有力的政策支持将对欧洲乃至世界产生重大影响,为全球企业创造新的风险和机遇。
美国方面,拜登总统成立了一个由其内阁高级成员组成的工作组,包括财政部部长珍妮特·耶伦,国家气候顾问吉娜·麦卡西和国家环境保护局局长迈克尔·雷根,负责更新“碳排放社会成本”,美国联邦政府根据碳排放社会成本来确定环境法规和其他一系列需要评估外部污染成本的政策。
根据奥巴马政府较早前发布的指导意见,2021年2月19日的一份声明将2007年的碳排放社会成本指标大幅提升至接近每吨50美元,显著高于特朗普政府的每吨1- 6美元。
本行预计拜登政府明年将在全面审查后进一步上调对碳排放社会成本的评估,这将成为拜登应对气候变化的“全政府”方针中一项重要的政策工具。
经济学家尼古拉斯·斯特恩和约瑟夫·史迪格里兹近期发表的一篇学术论文指出,到2030年,需要将碳排放社会成本大幅提升至每吨约100美元(按2007年价格计算),才能使美国未来的经济道路符合巴黎协定的气候目标。而芝加哥大学的另外一些学者则认为,实现这一目标起码需要进一步上调碳排放社会成本至每吨125美元。
随着这些举措不断增加,本行预计碳排放定价将成为全球决策制定过程中的重要组成部分,加上主要经济体的其他关键政策发展,均将在未来几年重塑世界经济。
实现净零排放,任重而道远
国际能源署 (IEA) 在其2021年5月发布的最新报告中表示:“实现净零排放任重而道远:若要朝这一目标稳步前进,需要利用所有可用的清洁高效能源技术迅速进行大规模部署。”该报告提供了详细的实施细则,以在2050年前实现能源和工业净零排放。
国际能源署报告中的一项重要提议是,从今年开始不应再批准开发新的石油和天然气田或煤矿,而能源投资的年投资额应从目前的约2.3万亿美元增加一倍以上,到2030年达5万亿美元,重点投资清洁能源和赋能基础设施。
根据气候行动追踪组织 (Climate Action Tracker) 2021年5月发布的最新预测,按照目前的气温变化轨迹,到2100年全球气温仍将上升约2.4摄氏度,远高于巴黎协定1.5摄氏度的目标。
放眼全球,不远的将来可能发生的灾难性气候变化将对各大政府及行业领袖产生越来越大的影响。
2021年3月发布的一份报告显示,在全球2000家头部上市公司中,超五分之一 (21%) 的公司已承诺降低碳排放量至净零水平。
七国集团发达国家经济体—美国、加拿大、法国、德国、意大利、日本和英国最近承诺在2021年底前停止对煤炭项目的国际投资,并在2025年之前逐步取消“低效化石燃料”补贴。该集团还承诺在2030年前将总体排放量从2010年的水平减少一半,并在2050年前实现净零排放量。
更多举措正加紧实施,以实现绿色转型
全球其他各大政府也更加关注气候变化,并利用其现有的政策手段支持世界经济向低碳转型。
中国人民银行行长易纲于2021年6月10日表示:“绿色转型的工作是明确化石碳排放的隐含成本并对其加以限制。这将要求排放者为增加的碳排放量支付费用,并通过合理定价使现有的排放权交易成为可能。这样做,即可补偿减排国家,又可让排放者付出代价。”
中国人民银行计划建立强制信息披露制度,要求所有金融机构和企业遵循统一的信息披露标准,今年还将与欧盟合作,统一这两个市场的绿色分类标准。此外,中国人民银行还对金融机构进行气候风险压力测试,同时密切监控这些机构在绿色转型方面的进展。
6月2日至4日,在由国际清算银行主办的“绿天鹅”线上会议中,欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德指出,即使在目前的任务范围内,各国央行也必须将气候变化风险纳入考量,因为:
- 气候变化预计将增加经济的不稳定性,从而增加了决策者理解和衡量通胀问题的难度;以及
- 如果管理不当,气候变化可能会导致金融市场不稳定,损害货币政策的传导作用。
本行预计未来几个月,联合国气候变化大会 (COP26) 在11月举行之前,全球将会公布更多政策和承诺。
图表3:在2021年11月举行的关键气候峰会之前,更多国家已升级脱碳承诺
资料来源:气候行动追踪组织。
注:国家自主贡献 (NDC) ,《巴黎协定》下各国作出的脱碳承诺。
新机遇涌现
本行仍然认为,寻求可持续、具气候韧性的发展道路,以及全球作出的减少气候变化威胁的努力,将在未来几年推动全球经济发生广泛而重大的变化。
随着世界各地政府积极响应应对气候变化威胁的号召,可能成功适应这些变化的企业将在重塑经济格局的过程中受益。
企业和投资者正迎来各种新涌现的机遇,包括碳捕获和储存等脱碳技术以及可再生能源方面的机会。
其他一些行业同样能够提供长期资产增值,拥有这类卓越投资机会的行业包括,间接涉及制造业、交通运输业、建筑业和城市设计等持续脱碳行业的公司。
其中包括空气净化系统中的专用化学品、芯片或其他关键部件的供应商。这些产品用于减少汽车和工厂碳排放,生产电动汽车电池,完善复杂自动化系统以减少建筑或工厂设施浪费并提高能效。
随着未来几年低碳经济转型加快,本行看到全球经济各个领域将涌现更多的投资机会
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No person or entity in Taiwan has been authorised to provide the information and to offer the service in Taiwan. Thailand: Please note that neither Bank of Singapore Limited nor any other entities in the Bank of Singapore Limited’s group maintains any licences, authorisations or registrations in Thailand nor is any of the material and information contained, or the relevant securities or products specified herein approved or registered in Thailand. Interests in the relevant securities or products may not be offered or sold within Thailand. The attached information has been provided at your request for informational purposes only and shall not be copied or redistributed to any other person without the prior consent of Bank of Singapore Limited or its relevant entities and in no way constitutes an offer, solicitation, advertisement or advice of, or in relation to, the relevant securities or products by Bank of Singapore Limited or any other entities in Bank of Singapore Limited’s group in Thailand. The Philippines: The information contained in this document is not intended to constitute a public offering of securities under the Securities Regulation Code of the Philippines. Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC): Bank of Singapore Limited has a branch registered in the Dubai International Financial Centre ("DIFC") which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). Bank of Singapore Limited (DIFC Branch) is not a financial institution licensed in the United Arab Emirates outside of the DIFC and does not undertake banking or financial activities in the United Arab Emirates nor is it licensed to do so outside of the DIFC. This material is provided for information purposes only and it is general information not specific in any way to any particular investor, investor type, strategy, investment need or other financial circumstance. As such this information is not financial advice or a financial promotion, nor is it intended to influence an investor's decision to invest. It is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The material is only intended for persons who fulfill the criteria to be classified as “Professional Clients” as defined under the DFSA rules and should not be reviewed, received, provided to or relied upon by any other person. United Arab Emirates (U.A.E): The information contained herein is exclusively addressed to the recipient. The offering of certain products in this document has not been and will not be registered with the Central Bank of United Arab Emirates or Securities & Commodities Authority in the United Arab Emirates. Any products in this document that are being offered or sold do not constitute a public offering or distribution of securities under the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. This document is not intended for circulation or distribution in or into the UAE, other than to persons in the UAE to whom such circulation or distribution is permitted by, or is exempt from the requirements of, the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. The distribution of the information contained herein by the recipient is prohibited. Where applicable, this document relates to securities which are listed outside of the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and the Dubai Financial Market. The Bank of Singapore Limited is not authorized to provide investment research regarding securities listed on the exchanges of the United Arab Emirates which are outside of the DIFC. 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Brunei: This document has not been delivered to, licensed or permitted by the Autoriti Monetari Brunei Darussalam, the authority as designated under the Brunei Darussalam Securities Markets Order, 2013 and the Banking Order, 2006; nor has it been registered with the Registrar of Companies, Registrar of International Business Companies or the Brunei Darussalam Ministry of Finance. The products mentioned in this document are not registered, licensed or permitted by the Autoriti Monetari Brunei Darussalam or by any other government agency or under any law in Brunei Darussalam. Any offers, acceptances, sales and allotments of the products shall be made outside Brunei Darussalam.