- 投资
- 2020年07月16 日
中国涨势 有望延续
By 谢佩华
投资组合管理和研究办公室主管
- 中国A股炙手可热
- 刺激政策促进宏观经济复苏，A股涨势有望延续
- 中美紧张局势可能升级，这仍然是市场的主要风险
中国最先经历新冠状病毒(Covid-19)全球大流行带来的严重冲击，亦最先走出2020-2021年困扰全球的经济困境。
从2020年6月29日开始，中国境内A股一直处于涨势。过去两周沪深300指数上涨了18%，使该指数在2020年3月23日至7月13日的低位至高位升幅达到37%。货币方面，美元兑人民币在7月9日突破7.00的水平，这是自3月以来首次。
承险情绪升温与官方媒体报道不谋而合，《中国证券报》在7月6日的头版社论指出，在疫情后促进「健康牛市」发展对经济的重要性，远高于过往任何时期。
图1：A股融资融券余额大幅上升，但仍远低于2015年的高位
资料来源：彭博、Wind；截至2020年7月9日
科技和新经济行业推动A股表现强劲，经济数据改善和散户投资者参与度的上升亦提振A股。A股每日成交额连续5日超过1.5万亿元人民币，A股融资融券总余额达1.3万亿元人民币，为2015年9月以来最高(图1)。
尽管如此，融资融券占自由流通市值的百分比仍维持在4.1%的合理水平，而过去五年的平均水平为4.5%。境内互惠基金发行强劲，2020年第二季新发行70多个股票型基金，募集资金380亿元人民币，表明流动性和风险偏好强劲。
外资可能助推了A股的涨势。7月初，透过沪港通/深港通北向交易流入中国境内股市的资金增加至75亿美元，与6月份的整体流入规模相近(图2)。
图2：透过沪港通/深港通北向交易流入中国境内股票的累计资金
资料来源：香港交易所、摩根大通；2020年7月7日发布
投资者疑问，目前的看涨情绪能否持续，或是稍纵即逝？这会否带来长期影响？现阶段的复苏存在何种风险？
我们认为这次反弹有望持续：
- 控疫措施行之有效：据中国有关部门统计，截至7月12日，全国确诊的感染病例总数为83,602例，当日新增8例。北京连续7日没有新增确诊病例，反映上月在北京食品批发市场发生的疫情已成功受控。
- 政府推行财政刺激措施及更加宽松的货币政策，从而推动宏观经济复苏：
相比美国、欧洲和日本，中国更快走出疫情危机。中国的新冠疫情在2020年第一季最为严重，而其他大多数主要经济体则发生于2020年第二季。但中国经济更快复苏，亦反映政府早期在控制新感染病例方面卓有成效。
中国于周四(7月16日)公布2020年第二季国内生产总值，届时将突显中国的优异表现。我们预测，中国经济按年增长率可能略高于2%，相比之下2020年第一季则按年大幅下滑6.8%。因此按年计算，经济活动将再次增长。
中国经济增长仍远低于疫情之前的趋势水平(即按年增长接近6.0%)。但中国经济强劲反弹与其他国家形成鲜明对比；我们目前预测美国、欧元区和日本的经济在2020年将分别收缩4.3%、7.7%和3.6%。因此相比美元，我们变得更加看好人民币。
2020年第三季初，数个因素支持市场短期看好中国经济。
首先，经济前景受益于更加稳健的信贷增长。政府增发债券为新的公共部门支出提供资金，广义贷款规模按年大幅增长约13%。
其次，通胀低迷将使货币政策进一步宽松，从而支持经济复苏。由于去年猪肉价格的飙升开始脱离通胀的按年计算情况，因此6月份消费物价指数的按年通胀率可望从2.5%开始回落。因此，继1月初将存款准备金率下调50个基点至12.50%后，中国人民银行在今年下半年有更多空间下调大型银行的存款准备金率，以支持经济增长。
第三，对于香港新国安法引发的中美紧张关系升温，金融市场(包括股市)的关注逐渐减弱。本月，中国外长王毅发表重要讲话，表明北京当局希望缓解紧张局势。他表示：「中美关系是世界上最重要的关系之一，但却正面临著1979年建交以来最严峻的挑战，这点令人忧虑......中国从来无意挑战或取代美国，也无意与美国全面对抗」。
同样，在11月总统大选前，金融市场预计美国政府不会进一步提高对中国出口产品的关税。另外民主党提名人拜登有望获胜，市场认为这在长期内可缓解贸易紧张局势，从而对人民币有利。
因此，自3月份以来人民币兑美元汇率首次突破7.00的水平。我们预计人民币将进一步升值，且最近我们将一年期美元兑人民币汇率目标上调至6.80。
人民币上涨亦是美元在全球进一步走弱的关键信号。在美国所有的贸易伙伴中，中国对美国的贸易顺差最大。因此，人民币走强意味著美国对中国的贸易逆差(及美国对全球其他国家的贸易逆差)在当前汇率下没有资金支持，因此美元需要下跌以平衡贸易和资本流。
美元兑人民币、欧元和其他主要货币的汇率走软，支持投资者情绪，有利于股票、商品、新兴市场和其他市场(包括中国)的风险资产。
房地产市场稳定及获得资金支持：
自4月份以来，中国各线城市的住宅销量均有所回升。2020年上半年全国销量按年下降4%符合情理，但基于目前良好的复苏势头，我们预计2020年下半年销量将迎头赶上。截至2020年6月底，在我们的覆盖范围内，发行高息债券的发展商于2020财政年度的目标订约销售额达35%-45%；这与历来上半年和下半年的40:60销售额比例一致。我们预计该等发展商于2020年将成功录得0-10%的增长。
2020年上半年，中国房地产高息债券在境外市场的发行规模为350亿美元，而2019年上半年为458亿美元。视乎投资者的需求，我们预计2020年下半年的债券供应量将放缓至约200亿-250亿美元(2019年下半年：220亿美元)。
该情况基于两个因素：首先，市场认为国家发展和改革委员会于最近几周增加境外债券额度。第二，2021年上半年有大量债券到期，其中境外到期债券和可售回债券的规模估计为320亿美元，发展商可能会在2020年下半年为其中一些债券预筹资金。目前，境外债券市场仍然较为青睐中国发展商债券，从而限制了再融资风险。更多详情，请参阅中国2020年下半年中期展望：除了强靭的中国地产外还有甚么？。
股票方面，在与数家中国发展商进行虚拟会议后，我们对行业前景基本持乐观态度。关键要点包括:i)发展商专注于在2020年下半年利用更多可销售的资源，加强营运和销售；ii)重申全年订约销售目标；iii)信贷条件宽松下，大部分发展商旨在降低借贷成本；iv)住房政策方向稳定；v)鉴于过去几年地价上涨，存在一定的利润率压力；vi)重点关注和业绩回升的地区包括长三角和大湾区。除了我们追踪的发展商订约销售持续出现复苏势头外，国家统计局的官方房地产数据亦显示行业复苏。更多详情，请参阅中国房地产继续迎头赶上。
- 资本市场改革
过去几年，中国启动了一系列资本市场开放举措，尤其是股市方面推行沪港通/深港通，其后推行债券通，最近在6月宣布跨境理财通。中国人民银行和香港金融管理局宣布的最新举措，将允许北向及南向资金投资于香港和大湾区的合资格金融产品，但有个别和累计额度限制。
中国境内理财市场规模估计为23万亿元人民币(约3.3万亿美元)，其中大部分投资于固定收益和信贷。我们推测，如果需求向境外转移，投资者将自然选择更为熟悉的信贷，例如中国发展商发行的境内和境外债券。
股票方面，中美关系长期紧张，以及美国可能颁布《外国公司问责法》，可能促使在美国上市美国预托证券的中国企业寻求其他上市途径。这些企业首选在香港第二上市，因为与第一上市相比，将美国预托证券与香港股票进行转换更加方便，流程更短，披露要求亦更低，这利好资金流入大中华地区。我们发现，18只美国预托证券符合在香港第二上市的条件，总市值约为4,150亿美元。假设在未来12至24个月内，这些合资格的美国预托证券在香港上市并发售5%的新股，估计将筹集200亿美元。。更多详情，请参阅中国企业美国预托证券：为香港市场带来活力。
风险
美国总统大选前中美紧张局势可能升级，这仍将是市场的主要风险。中国需要监测的主要风险是，如果市场过度亢奋，加上8月份企业中期业绩令人失望，监管机构可能会采取降温措施。
图3：固定收益方面，相对于中国投资级别债券，中国高息债券仍然具有良好的价值。
资料来源：摩根大通亚洲信贷指数数据；截至2020年7月3日
附注：HY=高息，IG=投资级别
上周末，中国银行保险监督管理委员会(银保监会)和中国证券监督管理委员会(中国证监会)宣布采取严格措施，以加强对资金流的监管，并严查杠杆和投机行为。
工作重点将是监管场外交易杠杆。中国证监会表示，将严厉打击非法套利行为，规范跨市场资金交易，并严禁银行、保险公司等金融机构参与场外融资融券。上周末发表公告前几天，中国证监会誓言加强对场外融资融券的监管，反映监管机构密切关注当前的市场涨势，并希望避免「不健康」的牛市，同时大力强调风险管理。
另外，银保监会强调需要关注高风险影子银行业务以新形式和特点再次出现。企业、住户及其他环管的杠杆率上升，且部分资金违规流入房地产市场，推高了资产泡沫。此外，就收紧场外融资融券发出警示后，监管机构宣布将透过国家基金(例如国家社保基金和国家集成电路产业投资基金)售出更多股票，从而为股市降温。因此，我们预计未来价格会更加波动。
对投资者的启示
在经济复苏和结构性改革不断扩大的背景下，中国为投资者提供了个别增长机会。随著我们走出疫情造成的经济衰退，进入下一个扩张周期，我们认为股票的长期风险回报稳健。从长期投资角度看，新一轮扩张周期的第一阶段通常能够吸引投资，而这亦支持了我们在资产配置策略中对股票的同等权重立场。
股市方面，恒生指数的12个月远期市盈率约为11.2倍，接近历史平均水平。尽管近期地缘政治不确定，但大市的估值大致处于历史区间的较高水平，相对而言恒生指数的估值似乎并不算高。我们对香港股市持增持态度，我们对恒生指数的最新指数预测反映了基准情境下可达27,330点，反映未来尚有7%的上升空间(见股票指数预测：随著估值上升，市场更加审慎谨慎)。
此外我们认为，随著中国境内流动性因素进一步增强，A股涨势有望延续，并可能在未来推动南向资金流入香港股市。目前与境外市场(MSCI中国指数)相比，境内A股市场(沪深300指数)的估值似乎仍然偏低。沪深300指数的2021年预期市盈率为13.7倍，比历史平均水平高1.5个标准差，而MSCI中国指数的2021年市盈率为14.2倍，远高于历史平均水平加上2个标准差的水平。
话虽如此，考虑到估值已基本反映初始阶段的经济强势复苏，且美国大选和中美地缘政治极有可能存在重大风险，因此我们认为投资者应该了解短期股市波动的风险可能高于平均水平。
固定收益方面，相比中国投资级别债券，2020年下半年我们仍然看好中国高息债券。目前中国高息债券回报比中国投资级债券高568个点子，而在2月份疫情爆发之前只有约423个点子；我们仍然认为中国高息债券的相对价值仍然吸引。
整体而言，鉴于中国的高息债券相对于其他地区和行业而言回报更高，因此我们继续看好其价值。特别是，尽管自3月份以来息差有所收窄，但中国房地产高息债券仍具有不错的价值。摩根大通亚洲信贷指数显示，年初至今，中国房地产高息债券的回报率约为2.86%，平均到期收益率目前为8.63%。
中美贸易可能引起避险情绪，进而影响风险资产的需求和流动性，这是以上观点的下行风险之一。高贝塔的低评级债券将最容易受到这种情绪波动的影响。因此，与B级房地产债券相比，我们仍然偏好BB级债券，而在B级债券中，我们倾向于3年或更短年期的债券。
7月份，中国新发行的高息债券在二级市场的表现参差，显示新股发行势头乏力的迹象。因此，我们鼓励投资者仔细挑选具有良好风险回报的信贷。
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Bank of Singapore Limited adheres to a group policy (as revised and updated from time to time) that provides how entities in the OCBC Group manage or eliminate any actual or potential conflicts of interest which may impact the impartiality of research reports issued by any research analyst in the OCBC Group.
Past performance is not always indicative of likely or future results. The value of any investment or income may go down as well as up. All investments involve an element of risk, including capital loss. Customers who are interested to invest in such investment products should read the risk disclosures and governing terms and conditions that are set out in the relevant offering documents.
Dual currency investments, structured deposits and other investment products are not insured by the Singapore Deposit Insurance Corporation or the Hong Kong Deposit Protection Scheme.
Applicable to clients booked and/or managed in the Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC) only: The information contained herein is exclusively addressed to the recipient. The offering of certain products in this document has not been and will not be registered with the Central Bank of United Arab Emirates or Securities & Commodities Authority in the United Arab Emirates. Any products in this document that are being offered or sold do not constitute a public offering or distribution of securities under the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. This document is not intended for circulation or distribution in or into the UAE, other than to persons in the UAE to whom such circulation or distribution is permitted by, or is exempt from the requirements of, the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. The distribution of the information contained herein by the recipient is prohibited. Where applicable, this document relates to securities which are listed outside of the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and the Dubai Financial Market. Bank of Singapore Limited is not authorized to provide investment research regarding securities listed on the exchanges of the United Arab Emirates which are outside of the DIFC.
Cross-Border Marketing
Hong Kong SAR: Bank of Singapore Limited is an Authorized Institution as defined in the Banking Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap 155), regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority in Hong Kong and a Registered Institution as defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap. 571), regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong. This document is for information only and is not intended for anyone other than the recipient. It has not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong. It is not by itself an offer or a solicitation to deal in any of the financial products referred to herein or to enter into any legal relations, nor an advice or a recommendation with respect to such financial products. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, investment experience and the particular needs of any recipient or Investor. This document may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed in whole or in part to any other person without the Bank’s prior written consent. This document is not intended for distribution to, publication or use by any person in any jurisdiction outside Hong Kong, or such other jurisdiction as the Bank may determine in its absolute discretion, where such distribution, publication or use would be contrary to applicable law or would subject the Bank and its related corporations, connected persons, associated persons and/or affiliates to any registration, licensing or other requirements within such jurisdiction. Indonesia: The offering of the investment product in reliance of this document is not registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and its implementing regulations, and is not intended to constitute a public offering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and its implementing regulations. According, this investment product may not be offered or sold, directly or indirectly, within Indonesia or to citizens (wherever they are domiciled or located), entities or residents, in any manner which constitutes a public offering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and its implementing regulations. Japan: The information contained in this document is for general reference purposes only. It does not have regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk tolerance and particular needs. Nothing in this document constitutes an offer to buy or sell or an invitation to offer to buy or sell or a recommendation or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or investment. We do not have any intention of conducting regulated business in Japan. You acknowledge that nothing in this document constitutes investment or financial advice or any advice of any nature. Malaysia: Bank of Singapore Limited does not hold any licence, registration or approval to carry on any regulated business in Malaysia (including but not limited to any businesses regulated under the Capital Markets & Services Act 2007 of Malaysia), nor does it hold itself out as carrying on or purport to carry on any such business in Malaysia. Any services provided by Bank of Singapore Limited to residents of Malaysia are provided solely on an offshore basis from outside Malaysia, either as a result of “reverse enquiry” on the part of the Malaysian residents or where Bank of Singapore Limited has been retained outside Malaysia to provide such services. As an integral part of the provision of such services from outside Malaysia, Bank of Singapore Limited may from time to time make available to such residents documents and information making reference to capital markets products (for example, in connection with the provision of fund management or investment advisory services outside of Malaysia). Nothing in such documents or information is intended to be construed as or constitute the making available of, or an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase any such capital markets product. Myanmar: This document and information herein is made available by Bank of Singapore Limited, which is not licensed or registered under the Financial Institutions Law (Law No. 20/2016) or other Myanmar legislation to carry on, nor do they purport to carry on, any regulated activity in Myanmar. The provision of any products and services by Bank of Singapore Limited shall be solely on an offshore basis. You shall ensure that you have and will continue to be fully compliant with all applicable laws in Myanmar when entering into discussion or contracts with Bank of Singapore Limited. Oman: This document does not constitute a public offer of investment, securities or financial services in the Sultanate of Oman, as contemplated by the Commercial Companies Law of Oman (Royal Decree No. 4/1974), Banking Law of Oman (Royal Decree No. 114/2000) or the Capital Market Law of Oman (Royal Decree No. 80/1998) and the Executive Regulations of the Capital Market Law (Ministerial Decision No. 1/2009) or an offer to sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy non-Omani investment products, securities or financial services and products in the Sultanate of Oman. This document is strictly private and confidential. It is being provided to a limited number of sophisticated investors solely to enable them to decide whether or not to make an offer to invest in financial products mentioned in this document, outside of the Sultanate of Oman, upon the terms and subject to the restrictions set out herein and may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose or provided to any person other than the original recipient. Additionally, this document is not intended to lead to the making of any contract within the territory or under the laws of the Sultanate of Oman. The Capital Market Authority of Oman and the Central Bank of Oman take no responsibility for the accuracy of the statements and information contained in this document or for the performance of the financial products mentioned in this document nor shall they have any liability to any person for damage or loss resulting from reliance on any statement or information contained herein. Russia: The investment products mentioned in this document have not been registered with or approved by the local regulator of any country and are not publicly distributed in Singapore or elsewhere. This document does not constitute or form part of an offer or invitation to the public in any country to subscribe for the products referred to herein. South Korea: The document does not constitute an offer, solicitation or investment advertisement to trade in the investment product referred to in the document. Taiwan: The provision of the information and the offer of the service concerned herewith have not been and will not be registered with the Financial Supervisory Commission of Taiwan pursuant to relevant laws and regulations of Taiwan and may not be provided or offered in Taiwan or in circumstances which requires a prior registration or approval of the Financial Supervisory Commission of Taiwan. No person or entity in Taiwan has been authorised to provide the information and to offer the service in Taiwan. Thailand: Please note that neither Bank of Singapore Limited nor any other entities in the Bank of Singapore Limited’s group maintains any licences, authorisations or registrations in Thailand nor is any of the material and information contained, or the relevant securities or products specified herein approved or registered in Thailand. Interests in the relevant securities or products may not be offered or sold within Thailand. The attached information has been provided at your request for informational purposes only and shall not be copied or redistributed to any other person without the prior consent of Bank of Singapore Limited or its relevant entities and in no way constitutes an offer, solicitation, advertisement or advice of, or in relation to, the relevant securities or products by Bank of Singapore Limited or any other entities in Bank of Singapore Limited’s group in Thailand. The Philippines: The information contained in this document is not intended to constitute a public offering of securities under the Securities Regulation Code of the Philippines. Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC): Bank of Singapore Limited has a branch registered in the Dubai International Financial Centre ("DIFC") which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). Bank of Singapore Limited (DIFC Branch) is not a financial institution licensed in the United Arab Emirates outside of the DIFC and does not undertake banking or financial activities in the United Arab Emirates nor is it licensed to do so outside of the DIFC. This material is provided for information purposes only and it is general information not specific in any way to any particular investor, investor type, strategy, investment need or other financial circumstance. As such this information is not financial advice or a financial promotion, nor is it intended to influence an investor's decision to invest. It is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The material is only intended for persons who fulfill the criteria to be classified as “Professional Clients” as defined under the DFSA rules and should not be reviewed, received, provided to or relied upon by any other person. United Arab Emirates (U.A.E): The information contained herein is exclusively addressed to the recipient. The offering of certain products in this document has not been and will not be registered with the Central Bank of United Arab Emirates or Securities & Commodities Authority in the United Arab Emirates. Any products in this document that are being offered or sold do not constitute a public offering or distribution of securities under the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. This document is not intended for circulation or distribution in or into the UAE, other than to persons in the UAE to whom such circulation or distribution is permitted by, or is exempt from the requirements of, the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. The distribution of the information contained herein by the recipient is prohibited. Where applicable, this document relates to securities which are listed outside of the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and the Dubai Financial Market. The Bank of Singapore Limited is not authorized to provide investment research regarding securities listed on the exchanges of the United Arab Emirates which are outside of the DIFC. United Kingdom: In the United Kingdom, this document is being made available only to the person or the entity to whom it is directed being persons to whom it may lawfully be directed under applicable laws and regulations of the United Kingdom (such persons are hereinafter referred to as ‘relevant persons’). Accordingly, this document is communicated only to relevant persons. Persons who are not relevant persons must not act on or rely on this document or any of its contents. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. Relevant persons in receipt of this document must not distribute, publish, reproduce, or disclose this document (in whole or in part) to any person who is not a relevant person. United States of America: This product may not be sold or offered within the United States or to U.S. persons.
Brunei: This document has not been delivered to, licensed or permitted by the Autoriti Monetari Brunei Darussalam, the authority as designated under the Brunei Darussalam Securities Markets Order, 2013 and the Banking Order, 2006; nor has it been registered with the Registrar of Companies, Registrar of International Business Companies or the Brunei Darussalam Ministry of Finance. The products mentioned in this document are not registered, licensed or permitted by the Autoriti Monetari Brunei Darussalam or by any other government agency or under any law in Brunei Darussalam. Any offers, acceptances, sales and allotments of the products shall be made outside Brunei Darussalam.
This product may only be offered: (i) in Hong Kong, to qualified Private Banking Customers and Professional Investors (as defined under the Securities and Futures Ordinance); and (ii) in Singapore, to Accredited Investors (as defined under the Securities and Futures Act) and (iii) in the Dubai International Financial Center to Professional Clients (as defined under the Dubai Financial Services Authority rules) only. No other person should act on the contents of this document.
This product may involve derivatives. Do NOT invest in it unless you fully understand and are willing to assume the risks associated with it. If you have any doubt, you should seek independent professional financial, tax and/or legal advice as you deem necessary.
Please carefully read and make sure that you understand all Risk Disclosures, Selling Restrictions, and Disclaimers. This document must be read together with the relevant Prospectus & Offering Documents &/or Key Fact Statement.
Disclaimer
This document is prepared by Bank of Singapore Limited (Co Reg. No.: 197700866R) (the “Bank”), is for information purposes only, and is not, by itself, intended for anyone other than the recipient. It may contain information proprietary to the Bank which may not be reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part without the Bank’s prior consent. It is not an offer or a solicitation to deal in any of the investment products referred to herein or to enter into any legal relations, nor an advice or by itself a recommendation with respect to such investment products. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, investment experience, financial situation and the particular needs of any recipient or customer. Customers should exercise caution in relation to any potential investment. Customers should independently evaluate each investment product and consider the suitability of such investment product, taking into account customer’s own specific investment objectives, investment experience, financial situation and/or particular needs. Customers will need to decide on their own as to whether or not the contents of this document are suitable for them. If a customer is in doubt about the contents of this document and/or the suitability of any investment products mentioned in this document for the customer, the customer should obtain independent financial, legal and/or tax advice from its professional advisers as necessary, before proceeding to make any investments.
The Bank, its Affiliates and their respective employees are not in the business of providing, and do not provide, tax, accounting or legal advice to any clients. The material contained herein is prepared for informational purposes and is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used or relied upon for tax, accounting or legal advice. Any such client is responsible for consulting his/her own independent advisor as to the tax, accounting and legal consequences associated with his/her investments/transactions based on the client’s particular circumstances.
This document and other related documents have not been reviewed by, registered or lodged as a prospectus, information memorandum or profile statement with the Monetary Authority of Singapore nor any regulator in Hong Kong or elsewhere.
This document may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed in whole or in part to any other person without the Bank’s prior written consent. This document is not intended for distribution to, publication or use by any person in any jurisdiction outside Singapore, Hong Kong, or such other jurisdiction as the Bank may determine in its absolute discretion, where such distribution, publication or use would be contrary to applicable law or would subject the Bank and its related corporations, connected persons, associated persons and/or affiliates (collectively, “Affiliates”) to any registration, licensing or other requirements within such jurisdiction.
Investments in financial instruments or other products carry significant risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Financial instruments or other products denominated in a foreign currency are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which may have an adverse effect on the price or value of an investment in such products. No liability is accepted by the Bank for any loss (whether direct, indirect or consequential) that may arise from any use of the information contained in or derived from this document. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. Any prices provided in this document (other than those that are identified as being historical) are indicative only and do not represent firm quotes as to either price or size. You should contact your local representative directly if you are interested in buying or selling any financial instrument or other product or pursuing any trading strategy, investment strategy or wealth planning structure that may be mentioned in this document.
While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure that the contents of this document have been obtained or derived from sources believed by the Bank and its Affiliates to be reliable, neither the Bank nor its Affiliates has independently verified the accuracy of such source(s). The Bank and its Affiliates and their respective officers, employees, agents and representatives do not make any express or implied representations, warranties or guarantees as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information, data or prevailing state of affairs that are mentioned in this document and do not accept any liability for any loss or damage whatsoever, direct or indirect, arising from or in connection with the use of the contents of this document.
The Bank and its Affiliates may have issued other reports, analyses, or other documents expressing views different from the contents hereof and all views expressed in all reports, analyses and documents are subject to change without notice. The Bank and its Affiliates reserve the right to act upon or use the contents hereof at any time, including before its publication herein.
The author of this document may have discussed the information contained therein with others within or outside the Bank and the author and/or such other Bank personnel may have already acted on the basis of this information (including communicating the information contained herein to other customers of the Bank). The Bank, its personnel (including those with whom the author may have consulted in the preparation of this communication), and other customers of the Bank may be long or short the financial instruments or other products referred to in this document, may have acquired such positions at prices and market conditions that are no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests. The persons providing the information to you may receive commissions, fees, rebates or other non-monetary benefits from any counterparty, broker, agent or another affiliate of the OCBC Group or any other party in respect of any trades or transactions effected for you including in relation to the investments referred to herein.
Bank of Singapore Limited is a licensed bank regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in Singapore. Bank of Singapore Limited, Hong Kong Branch, is an Authorized Institution as defined in the Banking Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap 155), regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority in Hong Kong and a Registered Institution as defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap.571) regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong. Bank of Singapore Limited, its employees and discretionary accounts managed by its Singapore Office may have long or short positions or may be otherwise interested in any of the investment products (including derivatives thereof) referred to in this document and may from time to time dispose of any such investment products. Bank of Singapore Limited forms part of the OCBC Group (being for this purpose Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited and its subsidiaries, related and affiliated companies). OCBC Group, their respective directors and/or employees (collectively “Related Persons”) may or might have in the future interests in the investment products or the issuers mentioned herein. Such interests include effecting transactions in such investment products, and providing broking, investment banking and other financial services to such issuers. OCBC Group and its Related Persons may also be related to, and receive fees from, providers of such investment products.
Bank of Singapore Limited adheres to a group policy (as revised and updated from time to time) that provides how entities in the OCBC Group manage or eliminate any actual or potential conflicts of interest which may impact the impartiality of research reports issued by any research analyst in the OCBC Group.
Past performance is not always indicative of likely or future results. The value of any investment or income may go down as well as up. All investments involve an element of risk, including capital loss. Customers who are interested to invest in such investment products should read the risk disclosures and governing terms and conditions that are set out in the relevant offering documents.
Dual currency investments, structured deposits and other investment products are not insured by the Singapore Deposit Insurance Corporation or the Hong Kong Deposit Protection Scheme.
Applicable to clients booked and/or managed in the Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC) only: The information contained herein is exclusively addressed to the recipient. The offering of certain products in this document has not been and will not be registered with the Central Bank of United Arab Emirates or Securities & Commodities Authority in the United Arab Emirates. Any products in this document that are being offered or sold do not constitute a public offering or distribution of securities under the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. This document is not intended for circulation or distribution in or into the UAE, other than to persons in the UAE to whom such circulation or distribution is permitted by, or is exempt from the requirements of, the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. The distribution of the information contained herein by the recipient is prohibited. Where applicable, this document relates to securities which are listed outside of the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and the Dubai Financial Market. Bank of Singapore Limited is not authorized to provide investment research regarding securities listed on the exchanges of the United Arab Emirates which are outside of the DIFC.
Cross-Border Marketing
Hong Kong SAR: Bank of Singapore Limited is an Authorized Institution as defined in the Banking Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap 155), regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority in Hong Kong and a Registered Institution as defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap. 571), regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong. This document is for information only and is not intended for anyone other than the recipient. It has not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong. It is not by itself an offer or a solicitation to deal in any of the financial products referred to herein or to enter into any legal relations, nor an advice or a recommendation with respect to such financial products. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, investment experience and the particular needs of any recipient or Investor. This document may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed in whole or in part to any other person without the Bank’s prior written consent. This document is not intended for distribution to, publication or use by any person in any jurisdiction outside Hong Kong, or such other jurisdiction as the Bank may determine in its absolute discretion, where such distribution, publication or use would be contrary to applicable law or would subject the Bank and its related corporations, connected persons, associated persons and/or affiliates to any registration, licensing or other requirements within such jurisdiction. Indonesia: The offering of the investment product in reliance of this document is not registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and its implementing regulations, and is not intended to constitute a public offering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and its implementing regulations. According, this investment product may not be offered or sold, directly or indirectly, within Indonesia or to citizens (wherever they are domiciled or located), entities or residents, in any manner which constitutes a public offering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and its implementing regulations. Japan: The information contained in this document is for general reference purposes only. It does not have regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk tolerance and particular needs. Nothing in this document constitutes an offer to buy or sell or an invitation to offer to buy or sell or a recommendation or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or investment. We do not have any intention of conducting regulated business in Japan. You acknowledge that nothing in this document constitutes investment or financial advice or any advice of any nature. Malaysia: Bank of Singapore Limited does not hold any licence, registration or approval to carry on any regulated business in Malaysia (including but not limited to any businesses regulated under the Capital Markets & Services Act 2007 of Malaysia), nor does it hold itself out as carrying on or purport to carry on any such business in Malaysia. Any services provided by Bank of Singapore Limited to residents of Malaysia are provided solely on an offshore basis from outside Malaysia, either as a result of “reverse enquiry” on the part of the Malaysian residents or where Bank of Singapore Limited has been retained outside Malaysia to provide such services. As an integral part of the provision of such services from outside Malaysia, Bank of Singapore Limited may from time to time make available to such residents documents and information making reference to capital markets products (for example, in connection with the provision of fund management or investment advisory services outside of Malaysia). Nothing in such documents or information is intended to be construed as or constitute the making available of, or an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase any such capital markets product. Myanmar: This document and information herein is made available by Bank of Singapore Limited, which is not licensed or registered under the Financial Institutions Law (Law No. 20/2016) or other Myanmar legislation to carry on, nor do they purport to carry on, any regulated activity in Myanmar. The provision of any products and services by Bank of Singapore Limited shall be solely on an offshore basis. You shall ensure that you have and will continue to be fully compliant with all applicable laws in Myanmar when entering into discussion or contracts with Bank of Singapore Limited. Oman: This document does not constitute a public offer of investment, securities or financial services in the Sultanate of Oman, as contemplated by the Commercial Companies Law of Oman (Royal Decree No. 4/1974), Banking Law of Oman (Royal Decree No. 114/2000) or the Capital Market Law of Oman (Royal Decree No. 80/1998) and the Executive Regulations of the Capital Market Law (Ministerial Decision No. 1/2009) or an offer to sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy non-Omani investment products, securities or financial services and products in the Sultanate of Oman. This document is strictly private and confidential. It is being provided to a limited number of sophisticated investors solely to enable them to decide whether or not to make an offer to invest in financial products mentioned in this document, outside of the Sultanate of Oman, upon the terms and subject to the restrictions set out herein and may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose or provided to any person other than the original recipient. Additionally, this document is not intended to lead to the making of any contract within the territory or under the laws of the Sultanate of Oman. The Capital Market Authority of Oman and the Central Bank of Oman take no responsibility for the accuracy of the statements and information contained in this document or for the performance of the financial products mentioned in this document nor shall they have any liability to any person for damage or loss resulting from reliance on any statement or information contained herein. Russia: The investment products mentioned in this document have not been registered with or approved by the local regulator of any country and are not publicly distributed in Singapore or elsewhere. This document does not constitute or form part of an offer or invitation to the public in any country to subscribe for the products referred to herein. South Korea: The document does not constitute an offer, solicitation or investment advertisement to trade in the investment product referred to in the document. Taiwan: The provision of the information and the offer of the service concerned herewith have not been and will not be registered with the Financial Supervisory Commission of Taiwan pursuant to relevant laws and regulations of Taiwan and may not be provided or offered in Taiwan or in circumstances which requires a prior registration or approval of the Financial Supervisory Commission of Taiwan. No person or entity in Taiwan has been authorised to provide the information and to offer the service in Taiwan. Thailand: Please note that neither Bank of Singapore Limited nor any other entities in the Bank of Singapore Limited’s group maintains any licences, authorisations or registrations in Thailand nor is any of the material and information contained, or the relevant securities or products specified herein approved or registered in Thailand. Interests in the relevant securities or products may not be offered or sold within Thailand. The attached information has been provided at your request for informational purposes only and shall not be copied or redistributed to any other person without the prior consent of Bank of Singapore Limited or its relevant entities and in no way constitutes an offer, solicitation, advertisement or advice of, or in relation to, the relevant securities or products by Bank of Singapore Limited or any other entities in Bank of Singapore Limited’s group in Thailand. The Philippines: The information contained in this document is not intended to constitute a public offering of securities under the Securities Regulation Code of the Philippines. Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC): Bank of Singapore Limited has a branch registered in the Dubai International Financial Centre ("DIFC") which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). Bank of Singapore Limited (DIFC Branch) is not a financial institution licensed in the United Arab Emirates outside of the DIFC and does not undertake banking or financial activities in the United Arab Emirates nor is it licensed to do so outside of the DIFC. This material is provided for information purposes only and it is general information not specific in any way to any particular investor, investor type, strategy, investment need or other financial circumstance. As such this information is not financial advice or a financial promotion, nor is it intended to influence an investor's decision to invest. It is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The material is only intended for persons who fulfill the criteria to be classified as “Professional Clients” as defined under the DFSA rules and should not be reviewed, received, provided to or relied upon by any other person. United Arab Emirates (U.A.E): The information contained herein is exclusively addressed to the recipient. The offering of certain products in this document has not been and will not be registered with the Central Bank of United Arab Emirates or Securities & Commodities Authority in the United Arab Emirates. Any products in this document that are being offered or sold do not constitute a public offering or distribution of securities under the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. This document is not intended for circulation or distribution in or into the UAE, other than to persons in the UAE to whom such circulation or distribution is permitted by, or is exempt from the requirements of, the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. The distribution of the information contained herein by the recipient is prohibited. Where applicable, this document relates to securities which are listed outside of the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and the Dubai Financial Market. The Bank of Singapore Limited is not authorized to provide investment research regarding securities listed on the exchanges of the United Arab Emirates which are outside of the DIFC. United Kingdom: In the United Kingdom, this document is being made available only to the person or the entity to whom it is directed being persons to whom it may lawfully be directed under applicable laws and regulations of the United Kingdom (such persons are hereinafter referred to as ‘relevant persons’). Accordingly, this document is communicated only to relevant persons. Persons who are not relevant persons must not act on or rely on this document or any of its contents. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. Relevant persons in receipt of this document must not distribute, publish, reproduce, or disclose this document (in whole or in part) to any person who is not a relevant person. United States of America: This product may not be sold or offered within the United States or to U.S. persons.
Brunei: This document has not been delivered to, licensed or permitted by the Autoriti Monetari Brunei Darussalam, the authority as designated under the Brunei Darussalam Securities Markets Order, 2013 and the Banking Order, 2006; nor has it been registered with the Registrar of Companies, Registrar of International Business Companies or the Brunei Darussalam Ministry of Finance. The products mentioned in this document are not registered, licensed or permitted by the Autoriti Monetari Brunei Darussalam or by any other government agency or under any law in Brunei Darussalam. Any offers, acceptances, sales and allotments of the products shall be made outside Brunei Darussalam.
