• 投资
  • 2022年01月31 日

投资策略及研究:股票增持动能将从美国转向亚洲(日本除外)市场 将新兴市场高收益债券评级下调至中性

  • 预计周期性和价值性行业会出现短期波动和板块轮动;将对冲基金持仓从中性转为增持,以进一步分散资产配置风险
  • 后疫情时期的广泛牛市延续;股票维持整体增持立场,鉴于更具吸引力的相对风险回报,增持趋势从美国市场转向亚洲(日本除外)市场
  • 考虑到利率的不利因素和中国房地产前景黯淡,将新兴市场高收益债券评级下调至中性

本行对1月份联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议的货币政策声明并不感到意外,即委员会重申了结束资产购买和启动加息的时间。

资产购买计划(即量化宽松)预计将于3月份结束。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)表示“很快将适当提高联邦基金利率的目标区间”,其示意将于3月份举行的新闻发布会上公布。

美联储还发布了一套降低其资产负债表规模的高级原则,指出“委员会预计,在提高联邦基金利率目标区间的过程开始后,将开始缩减美联储资产负债表规模”。这一点和鲍威尔的评论为5月至7月左右启动量化紧缩奠定了合理的基调。

然而,由于鲍威尔主席在新闻发布会上的声明带有鹰派色彩,这一趋势存在上行风险。

其并未排除美联储在今年连续几次政策会议上实施不间断加息的可能性,但强调尚未做出任何决定,并且与2015年上一次加息周期开始时相比“经济情况已大不相同。”

鲍威尔主席还讨论了通胀带来的相当大的不确定性,以及货币政策需要如何应对“通胀居高不下”的结果。他还表示,FOMC将“稳步”改变目前高度宽松的政策立场。

本行预计美联储将从今年3月份开始,每季度加息25个基点,并预计5月份开始缩减其资产负债表

视乎通胀的走势,今年或会有超过四次加息的风险:本行目前预计通胀或将在年中达到峰值,并认为美联储仍有把握遏制通胀水平,且通胀预期保持相对稳定。这与通胀盈亏平衡相对平淡以及收益率曲线长端趋平的看法一致。

历史数据表明,经济出现衰退之后,牛市并不会在最初几次加息时结束。展望未来,本行看到波动性和结构性趋势转向周期性和价值性行业的巨大机遇,本行认为,鉴于全球经济增长前景仍然向好,后新冠疫情时代更广泛的牛市仍会延续。

2021年的最后一个季度,美国经济年增长率相对于第三季度为6.9%(共识:5.5%)。2021年第四季度同比增长5.5%,2021年全年增长5.7%。令人意外的是,最后一个季度的库存积累水平要高得多,占4.9%。消费者支出年增长率为3.3%,高于第三季度的2.0%,但低于市场预期。本行仍然相信,美国将在2022年继续以高于趋势水平、以4.2%的速度增长,也这是连续第二年实现该增速。尽管利率持续波动,实体经济仍保持强劲态势。

奥密克戎的影响正延续到2022年,但本行认为,鉴于美国和英国的经历,该影响应不会持续太久。美国和英国新冠新增病例数急剧下降;美国的7天变动均值已从1月中旬的峰值约80万例下降至1月28日的约55万例。在英国,这一数据已从今年年初的峰值18万降至一个月后的约9万。英国的新冠死亡人数相较于2021年初的最高水平已降至低位,但美国该数据仍持续上升。

除美国之外,由于近期奥密克戎的影响,其他国家/地区2021年第四季度GDP报告喜忧参半。由于对未接种疫苗的居民的限制和供应链持续中断,德国经济连续收缩了0.7%。台湾地区和韩国等亚洲经济领头羊的表现要好得多,在2021年第四季度环比分别增长2.7%和1.1%。

就采购经理人指数(PMI)而言,虽然持续保持低迷态势,但所有数据均保持在50或以上的扩张水平。发达市场最新的PMI初值显示,1月份制造业和服务业均出现下滑。服务业从12月的55.2大幅下跌至1月的50.4,而制造业则从54.9下滑至51.0。

在本行的资产配置策略中,本行仍然整体增持股票,但考虑到相对更具吸引力的估值和风险回报,本行将偏好从美国股票转向亚洲(日本除外)股票。配置策略具体为,下调美股持仓权重,从超配下调至中性,并将亚洲(日本除外)股市权重从中性调整为增持。

本行还将本行在对冲基金中的权重从中性调整为超配,因为本行认为,自下而上的策略更能分散投资风险,将有利于市场偏中性的阿尔法基金策略,并进一步受益于本行资产配置策略中增加的多元化因素。

在固定收益方面,考虑到收益率上升带来的预期阻力以及中国房地产行业前景黯淡,本行将新兴市场高收益债券的持仓从超配调整为中性。

在本行看来,新兴市场高收益债券的前景变得更加难以预料。美国利率前景的重新评估,使得新兴市场高收益债券的前景更为黯淡,利率变动轨迹比之前预期的更为激进。作为新兴市场高收益债券最大的风险敞口,中国房地产行业的前景也不乐观。毫无疑问,中国的政策支持正在转向宽松,正如本行所见,利率和银行存款准备金率均已降低。然而,消费者、金融机构和在岸投资者仍然相当谨慎,流向房地产市场较弱部分的信贷仍然有限,或将触发更多违约或债务延期危机。

随着中国房地产销售可能保持疲软,在本行转变看法之前,针对该行业应有必要采取更多措施和政策微调来缓解信贷和资本紧缩。

最后,地缘政治紧张局势加剧(如俄罗斯/乌克兰)预计会对市场表现造成些许拖累。  本行继续维持对发达市场高收益债券中性持仓的立场,并维持发达市场和新兴市场投资级债券的低配。

然而,除房地产行业之外,本行仍对今年中国的经济前景充满信心。中国人民银行自2020年4月以来首次下调7天反向回购利率和中期贷款利率,这清楚地表明,中国政府正在逐渐放宽政策。

这将有助于刺激更多地方政府贷款,从而有助于支持必要的资本投资和基础设施支出,以弥补房地产行业放缓带来的投资缺口。

社会融资总额在去年12月已经有所增加,宣布降息之后或会再次得到提振。12月份工业生产加速,同比达到4.3%,中国出口继续表现良好,同比强劲增长20%。一些拖累经济的因素,如供给侧问题和财政支出放缓的趋势预计将逆转,并将在今年朝更有利于支持增长的方向发展。

重要的是,中国股市的估值平平,特别是与美国相比,美国股市的风险回报更具吸引力。中国市场12个月远期市盈率接近10年平均水平,而美国的12个月远期市盈率高于1个标准差。

宏观经济背景的转变和有吸引力的估值相结合,表明2022年中国股市的风险回报相对更具吸引力,这坚定了本行的观点,即增持股票头寸的趋势将从美股转向亚洲(日本除外)股市。

像京东、美团和阿里巴巴这样的互联网平台股票目前的交易,在市盈率方面比其五年平均历史市盈率低1到2个标准差,远期市盈率也比历史水平低约0.5个标准差(阿里巴巴则更低)。

在中国,金融和原材料行业预计将受益于2022年发生的周期性转变,而可再生能源和新能源汽车是多年投资主题,仍将是重要的关注领域。

选定的互联网和平台公司未来发展道路漫长而崎岖,但前景向好,且监管趋势日益明朗,企业盈利将逐渐恢复。

最后,由于共同富裕政策同时强调提高中低收入群体的福祉,消费需求势必得到支持,尤其在新冠疫情限制措施放宽的情况下。必需消费品和部分非必需消费品(如汽车)仍应是核心持仓资产。

长期政策的重点是共同富裕、碳中和,而谨慎管理信贷和杠杆仍将是企业及其业绩表现的关键。

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