- 投资
- 2020年07月01 日
新冠状病毒和气候变化重塑基建计划
By Henny Sender
本文是与《金融时报》合作编制的《亚洲商业方针特别版》的一部分。
新冠状病毒在中国武汉市肆虐期间，亚洲开发银行的主管人员接到中国燃气的来电，而中国燃气是这家位于马尼拉的银行的长期私营企业客户。
私营企业贷款部主管Michael Barrow表示：「对方查询亚洲开发银行能否向中国燃气提供资金，为新建医院提供液化天然气，而这些医院是仓促兴建的，以满足不断增长的病床需求。」「我们现在必须优先考虑即时应对疫情的措施」。
新冠肺炎广泛传播，令一切无法「如常运作」。无论是私营企业和政府，或是开发银行(例如亚洲开发银行和总部设在北京的亚洲基础设施投资银行)，在正常时期均努力实现目标远大的跨境项目，但在疫情爆发后均搁置了基建项目。
疫情爆发引发市场忧虑，担心当资金用于应对更为紧迫的威胁时，重要的工程将无限期推迟。亚洲开发银行早前将支出增加了两倍至200亿美元，以帮助政府应对疫情的影响。
随著多国政府背弃应对气候变化和海平面上升等长期威胁的承诺，在确保基建项目实现绿色、可持续和稳健发展目标方面，短期内可能难有进展。
工厂停止生产，路上没有排放废气的车辆行驶，区内的天空由一片蒙浓的灰黄色回复至蔚蓝，令处理污染问题似乎不再是燃眉之急。如果石油价格跌至每桶20美元，公众就不会急于转用可再生能源。
不过，地区的开发银行现在可以发挥关键作用，帮助寻找对策，在处理疫情带来的直接威胁的同时，兼顾基建的长期需求以支持经济发展。这些银行通常较政府更有公信力，特别是对私营部门而言。
亚洲新兴国家的政府通常需要在基建项目的规划和融资方面得到帮助，如果项目成果良好，则成为经济繁荣发展的关键。这些项目包括修建道路，以便农民能够将农作物运到市场，儿童能够上学；亦包括修建发电厂，让国家能够吸引制造业和创造就业。但不论是发展中国家或发达国家，鲜有政府能否在这方面取得成果。
政治人物倾向于从选举周期的角度思考问题，而选举周期可能短至两年。另一方面，基建项目是现在投放资金，以换取将来才会出现的利益。
同时，民营企业在设定回报目标时，都会将政府视为最大的风险因素之一，例如在获得土地或申请许可证方面。如果政府换届，政策通常亦会变化，相关支持措施也会逐渐消失，令私营企业陷入困境。
疫情产生的一个影响(特别是对就业的威胁)，是令人们意识到社会凝聚力可能崩溃。这可能需要推行一些应对举措，例如在短期内注重贪穷人口的粮食安全，并确保长期加强社会安全网。
亚洲开发银行东南亚地区负责人Ramesh Subramaniam称：「推行社会利益保障计划至关重要。」他表示，企业在这些计划中仅发挥轻微的支持作用。
一旦疫情的直接威胁消失，气候变化或会迫使所有选民以新的方式思考基建设施，包括关注环保、可持续发展和稳健的企业。换句话说，基建投资和环境、社会和治理(ESG)投资的趋势可能一体化。这与部分私营企业目前的状况一致：全球对这些企业施加更大的压力，要求它们遵守最佳标准。
如今，许多私营机构(例如贝莱德及其他资产管理公司，以及银行和保险公司)正牵头抵制以前的标准基建项目，例如建设燃煤发电厂。
瑞士再保险等保险公司在业务考量中更加关注气候变化，因为这些企业为极端天气等事件承保，而由于气候转变，极端天气的发生频率和严重性均有所增加。瑞士再保险和其他保险公司均表示，在风险管理上有必要考虑能够可持续发展及稳健的基建设施。
经济适用房：新重点
现时，经济适用房等新规划项目成为可持续发展程度最高的基建设施项目，它们既能带来直接的社会和经济效应，亦能吸引私营部门。
此外，这些项目必须合符商业意义，而不是纯粹关乎企业社会责任。
Vivek Pathak，国际金融公司
经济适用房已成为区内开发银行的重点工作。世界银行辖下的私营企业国际金融公司正与一家瑞士公司合作，在越南建造这类经济适用房，该项目名称为EZ Land；此外，国际金融公司亦与印尼雅加达郊区的房地产发展商Ciputra合作。Vivek Pathak负责世界银行集团辖下的国际金融公司的东亚地区业务。他表示，当游说私营企业以能够获利的价格建造房屋，同时采取最佳的绿色标准时，他发现最具说服力的论点是：绿色（环保）和棕色（不环保）的房屋哪一种最能保值。
据他所言：「发展项目必须具备商业意义，而不是纯粹关乎企业社会责任」。
本文经FT.com授权转载，原文于2020年5月11日在FT.com发表。© 2020 The Financial Times Ltd。翻版必究。请勿复制粘贴《金融时报》的文章，请勿透过电子邮件或网络发布再传播。
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The author of this document may have discussed the information contained therein with others within or outside the Bank and the author and/or such other Bank personnel may have already acted on the basis of this information (including communicating the information contained herein to other customers of the Bank). The Bank, its personnel (including those with whom the author may have consulted in the preparation of this communication), and other customers of the Bank may be long or short the financial instruments or other products referred to in this document, may have acquired such positions at prices and market conditions that are no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests. The persons providing the information to you may receive commissions, fees, rebates or other non-monetary benefits from any counterparty, broker, agent or another affiliate of the OCBC Group or any other party in respect of any trades or transactions effected for you including in relation to the investments referred to herein.
Bank of Singapore Limited is a licensed bank regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in Singapore. Bank of Singapore Limited, Hong Kong Branch, is an Authorized Institution as defined in the Banking Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap 155), regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority in Hong Kong and a Registered Institution as defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap.571) regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong. Bank of Singapore Limited, its employees and discretionary accounts managed by its Singapore Office may have long or short positions or may be otherwise interested in any of the investment products (including derivatives thereof) referred to in this document and may from time to time dispose of any such investment products. Bank of Singapore Limited forms part of the OCBC Group (being for this purpose Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited and its subsidiaries, related and affiliated companies). OCBC Group, their respective directors and/or employees (collectively “Related Persons”) may or might have in the future interests in the investment products or the issuers mentioned herein. Such interests include effecting transactions in such investment products, and providing broking, investment banking and other financial services to such issuers. OCBC Group and its Related Persons may also be related to, and receive fees from, providers of such investment products.
Bank of Singapore Limited adheres to a group policy (as revised and updated from time to time) that provides how entities in the OCBC Group manage or eliminate any actual or potential conflicts of interest which may impact the impartiality of research reports issued by any research analyst in the OCBC Group.
Past performance is not always indicative of likely or future results. The value of any investment or income may go down as well as up. All investments involve an element of risk, including capital loss. Customers who are interested to invest in such investment products should read the risk disclosures and governing terms and conditions that are set out in the relevant offering documents.
Dual currency investments, structured deposits and other investment products are not insured by the Singapore Deposit Insurance Corporation or the Hong Kong Deposit Protection Scheme.
Applicable to clients booked and/or managed in the Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC) only: The information contained herein is exclusively addressed to the recipient. The offering of certain products in this document has not been and will not be registered with the Central Bank of United Arab Emirates or Securities & Commodities Authority in the United Arab Emirates. Any products in this document that are being offered or sold do not constitute a public offering or distribution of securities under the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. This document is not intended for circulation or distribution in or into the UAE, other than to persons in the UAE to whom such circulation or distribution is permitted by, or is exempt from the requirements of, the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. The distribution of the information contained herein by the recipient is prohibited. Where applicable, this document relates to securities which are listed outside of the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and the Dubai Financial Market. Bank of Singapore Limited is not authorized to provide investment research regarding securities listed on the exchanges of the United Arab Emirates which are outside of the DIFC.
Cross-Border Marketing
Hong Kong SAR: Bank of Singapore Limited is an Authorized Institution as defined in the Banking Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap 155), regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority in Hong Kong and a Registered Institution as defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap. 571), regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong. This document is for information only and is not intended for anyone other than the recipient. It has not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong. It is not by itself an offer or a solicitation to deal in any of the financial products referred to herein or to enter into any legal relations, nor an advice or a recommendation with respect to such financial products. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, investment experience and the particular needs of any recipient or Investor. This document may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed in whole or in part to any other person without the Bank’s prior written consent. This document is not intended for distribution to, publication or use by any person in any jurisdiction outside Hong Kong, or such other jurisdiction as the Bank may determine in its absolute discretion, where such distribution, publication or use would be contrary to applicable law or would subject the Bank and its related corporations, connected persons, associated persons and/or affiliates to any registration, licensing or other requirements within such jurisdiction. Indonesia: The offering of the investment product in reliance of this document is not registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and its implementing regulations, and is not intended to constitute a public offering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and its implementing regulations. According, this investment product may not be offered or sold, directly or indirectly, within Indonesia or to citizens (wherever they are domiciled or located), entities or residents, in any manner which constitutes a public offering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and its implementing regulations. Japan: The information contained in this document is for general reference purposes only. It does not have regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk tolerance and particular needs. Nothing in this document constitutes an offer to buy or sell or an invitation to offer to buy or sell or a recommendation or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or investment. We do not have any intention of conducting regulated business in Japan. You acknowledge that nothing in this document constitutes investment or financial advice or any advice of any nature. Malaysia: Bank of Singapore Limited does not hold any licence, registration or approval to carry on any regulated business in Malaysia (including but not limited to any businesses regulated under the Capital Markets & Services Act 2007 of Malaysia), nor does it hold itself out as carrying on or purport to carry on any such business in Malaysia. Any services provided by Bank of Singapore Limited to residents of Malaysia are provided solely on an offshore basis from outside Malaysia, either as a result of “reverse enquiry” on the part of the Malaysian residents or where Bank of Singapore Limited has been retained outside Malaysia to provide such services. As an integral part of the provision of such services from outside Malaysia, Bank of Singapore Limited may from time to time make available to such residents documents and information making reference to capital markets products (for example, in connection with the provision of fund management or investment advisory services outside of Malaysia). Nothing in such documents or information is intended to be construed as or constitute the making available of, or an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase any such capital markets product. Myanmar: This document and information herein is made available by Bank of Singapore Limited, which is not licensed or registered under the Financial Institutions Law (Law No. 20/2016) or other Myanmar legislation to carry on, nor do they purport to carry on, any regulated activity in Myanmar. The provision of any products and services by Bank of Singapore Limited shall be solely on an offshore basis. You shall ensure that you have and will continue to be fully compliant with all applicable laws in Myanmar when entering into discussion or contracts with Bank of Singapore Limited. Oman: This document does not constitute a public offer of investment, securities or financial services in the Sultanate of Oman, as contemplated by the Commercial Companies Law of Oman (Royal Decree No. 4/1974), Banking Law of Oman (Royal Decree No. 114/2000) or the Capital Market Law of Oman (Royal Decree No. 80/1998) and the Executive Regulations of the Capital Market Law (Ministerial Decision No. 1/2009) or an offer to sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy non-Omani investment products, securities or financial services and products in the Sultanate of Oman. This document is strictly private and confidential. It is being provided to a limited number of sophisticated investors solely to enable them to decide whether or not to make an offer to invest in financial products mentioned in this document, outside of the Sultanate of Oman, upon the terms and subject to the restrictions set out herein and may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose or provided to any person other than the original recipient. Additionally, this document is not intended to lead to the making of any contract within the territory or under the laws of the Sultanate of Oman. The Capital Market Authority of Oman and the Central Bank of Oman take no responsibility for the accuracy of the statements and information contained in this document or for the performance of the financial products mentioned in this document nor shall they have any liability to any person for damage or loss resulting from reliance on any statement or information contained herein. Russia: The investment products mentioned in this document have not been registered with or approved by the local regulator of any country and are not publicly distributed in Singapore or elsewhere. This document does not constitute or form part of an offer or invitation to the public in any country to subscribe for the products referred to herein. South Korea: The document does not constitute an offer, solicitation or investment advertisement to trade in the investment product referred to in the document. Taiwan: The provision of the information and the offer of the service concerned herewith have not been and will not be registered with the Financial Supervisory Commission of Taiwan pursuant to relevant laws and regulations of Taiwan and may not be provided or offered in Taiwan or in circumstances which requires a prior registration or approval of the Financial Supervisory Commission of Taiwan. No person or entity in Taiwan has been authorised to provide the information and to offer the service in Taiwan. Thailand: Please note that neither Bank of Singapore Limited nor any other entities in the Bank of Singapore Limited’s group maintains any licences, authorisations or registrations in Thailand nor is any of the material and information contained, or the relevant securities or products specified herein approved or registered in Thailand. Interests in the relevant securities or products may not be offered or sold within Thailand. The attached information has been provided at your request for informational purposes only and shall not be copied or redistributed to any other person without the prior consent of Bank of Singapore Limited or its relevant entities and in no way constitutes an offer, solicitation, advertisement or advice of, or in relation to, the relevant securities or products by Bank of Singapore Limited or any other entities in Bank of Singapore Limited’s group in Thailand. The Philippines: The information contained in this document is not intended to constitute a public offering of securities under the Securities Regulation Code of the Philippines. Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC): Bank of Singapore Limited has a branch registered in the Dubai International Financial Centre ("DIFC") which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). Bank of Singapore Limited (DIFC Branch) is not a financial institution licensed in the United Arab Emirates outside of the DIFC and does not undertake banking or financial activities in the United Arab Emirates nor is it licensed to do so outside of the DIFC. This material is provided for information purposes only and it is general information not specific in any way to any particular investor, investor type, strategy, investment need or other financial circumstance. As such this information is not financial advice or a financial promotion, nor is it intended to influence an investor's decision to invest. It is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The material is only intended for persons who fulfill the criteria to be classified as “Professional Clients” as defined under the DFSA rules and should not be reviewed, received, provided to or relied upon by any other person. United Arab Emirates (U.A.E): The information contained herein is exclusively addressed to the recipient. The offering of certain products in this document has not been and will not be registered with the Central Bank of United Arab Emirates or Securities & Commodities Authority in the United Arab Emirates. Any products in this document that are being offered or sold do not constitute a public offering or distribution of securities under the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. This document is not intended for circulation or distribution in or into the UAE, other than to persons in the UAE to whom such circulation or distribution is permitted by, or is exempt from the requirements of, the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. The distribution of the information contained herein by the recipient is prohibited. Where applicable, this document relates to securities which are listed outside of the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and the Dubai Financial Market. The Bank of Singapore Limited is not authorized to provide investment research regarding securities listed on the exchanges of the United Arab Emirates which are outside of the DIFC. United Kingdom: In the United Kingdom, this document is being made available only to the person or the entity to whom it is directed being persons to whom it may lawfully be directed under applicable laws and regulations of the United Kingdom (such persons are hereinafter referred to as ‘relevant persons’). Accordingly, this document is communicated only to relevant persons. Persons who are not relevant persons must not act on or rely on this document or any of its contents. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. Relevant persons in receipt of this document must not distribute, publish, reproduce, or disclose this document (in whole or in part) to any person who is not a relevant person. United States of America: This product may not be sold or offered within the United States or to U.S. persons.
Brunei: This document has not been delivered to, licensed or permitted by the Autoriti Monetari Brunei Darussalam, the authority as designated under the Brunei Darussalam Securities Markets Order, 2013 and the Banking Order, 2006; nor has it been registered with the Registrar of Companies, Registrar of International Business Companies or the Brunei Darussalam Ministry of Finance. The products mentioned in this document are not registered, licensed or permitted by the Autoriti Monetari Brunei Darussalam or by any other government agency or under any law in Brunei Darussalam. Any offers, acceptances, sales and allotments of the products shall be made outside Brunei Darussalam.
