- 中国全国碳排放交易体系启动,推动全球各国出台政策为碳污染定价
- 欧盟公布全面的气候方案,包括将碳定价范围扩大到新行业,以及推出碳边境税。
- 美国民主党提议对进口商品征收碳税
本月的两项关键发展清晰地表明,为全球经济活动脱碳所作出的努力,在未来十年将如何改变世界经济。
首先,中国全国碳排放交易体系启动,推动全球各国持续采取行动,将碳污染的成本以及商业和投资决策纳入政策监管(请参见本行最新报告:实现净零排放,任重而道远)。
其次,欧盟推出一系列全面的方案,旨在从根本上重塑未来十年乃至更长远的欧盟经济。
中国和欧盟庞大的经济规模意味着,其脱碳政策将影响全球碳密集型产业的竞争格局。
正如本行此前强调的,预计未来几年,世界主要经济体将就电动汽车、风力发电和氢燃料等清洁能源和绿色技术领域的主导权展开激烈竞争(请参见气候行动:引爆趋势)。
欧盟“Fit for 55”一揽子方案
2021年7月14日,欧盟委员会宣布“Fit for 55”方案。该一揽子方案包含多项环环相扣、相辅相成的政策和立法,目的是加快整个欧盟经济的脱碳进程。
欧盟的目标是,到2030年将欧盟全部27个成员国的温室气体净排放量从1990年的水平减少55%以上,到2050年实现净零排放。方案反映出实现这一目标所需的大规模系统性转型。
图表1:在超额完成2020年前减排20%的目标之后,欧盟设定一项宏大的目标,计划2030年之前减排55%以上
资料来源:欧盟环境署、新加坡银行,截至2021年7月25日的最新数据。
注:虚线表示为实现2030年碳排放水平较1990年下降55%的目标,欧盟需要进一步减少的温室气体排放量。
其主要特点包括:
- 将欧盟碳定价范围扩大到航运、陆路运输和建筑行业——这些行业尚未纳入欧盟排放交易体系——并将逐步取消航空业的免费排放配额。
- 对进口商品增加碳边境税(首先从水泥、钢铁、铝、化肥和电开始征收),以解决欧盟气候政策对其成员国行业不利的问题。从2023年起,进口商必须报告商品涉及的排放量,从2026年开始征收碳税。
- 欧盟还将设立一个规模为1,444亿欧元的社会气候基金,其中50%由欧盟中央预算拨款,剩余相应款项由各成员国在2025-2032年期间支付。以此来帮助因受欧盟碳定价范围扩大到交通和建筑供暖体系的影响,成本增加的弱势家庭和小企业。
- 对车辆实施更严格的排放标准,要求截至2035年注册的所有新车都是零排放汽车。这意味着到2035年,装有传统内燃机的新车将禁止在欧盟地区销售。公共资金将用于零排放汽车的配套基础设施建设,包括充电站和氢气加气站。
- 欧盟级别可再生能源份额提升目标,具有法律约束力,到2030年将欧盟所有终端能源消耗中的可再生能源占比从目前的20%提高到40%。
欧盟碳定价范围扩大到欧盟内部其他行业和进口商品,这一方案与本行的观点一致,即全球政府正在实施更严格的碳排放定价,从而使经济活动与气候目标一致。
“我们目前的化石燃料经济已经触及瓶颈。而且我们明白,我们必须开启全新的经济模式,”欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩在“Fit for 55” 方案启动会上谈到。“我们选择碳定价作为一种明确指导和基于市场的工具,并提供社会补偿。必须为二氧化碳的排放定价,这能够促使消费者、生产者和创新者选择清洁技术,选择清洁可持续产品。”
特别是计划实施的碳边境税,或称“碳边境调整机制”,是为了“确保欧洲的减排有助于全球碳排放量的减少,而非将碳密集型生产推向欧洲以外地区”,欧盟委员会在一份声明中表示。“碳边境税还旨在鼓励欧盟以外的行业和我们的国际伙伴采取类似措施。”
这印证了本行的长期观点,即欧盟对脱碳实施强有力的政策支持将对欧洲乃至世界产生重大影响,为全球企业创造新的风险和机遇(请参见欧盟绿色协议——欧洲的“登月计划”)。本行预测,越晚实施碳定价计划的国家,将越难进入主要出口市场,或所需成本将提高。
欧盟最新的方案在立法前,仍需欧盟成员国和欧盟议会通过,预计这一过程将需要两年时间。
几乎可以肯定,碳边境税等提案将在法律、外交和贸易渠道面临来自中美等主要贸易伙伴的挑战。
然而本行预计,未来几个月全球气候相关政治趋势总体上将持续加强。在11月于格拉斯哥举行的联合国气候变化大会 (COP26) 召开之前,中美和其他主要经济体将公布更多政策声明和承诺。
欧盟宣布“Fit for 55”仅几天后,美国民主党议员提出一项针对钢铁、天然气、石油、煤炭等进口商品增加碳关税的立法,并推出全国性“清洁能源标准”,目标是到2035年实现美国电力行业净零排放。
中国碳排放交易体系启动
中国备受期待的全国碳排放交易体系 (ETS) 于2021年7月16日开始交易,二氧化碳每吨48元,收盘时攀升至51.23元。一周后,2021年7月23日上海环境与能源交易所运营的交易平台收盘时每吨碳排放的交易价格涨至56.97元。
中国的碳排放交易体系设立之初已经是世界上最大的碳排放体系,覆盖碳排放量超过40亿吨,占中国碳排放总量的40%、全球碳排放总量的12%。
碳排放交易体系预计将成为中国实现“30-60”目标的关键支柱,即到2030年碳排放见顶,到2060年实现净零排放。
预计碳排放交易体系将通过提高中国煤电厂的效率,以及在电力行业扩大碳捕获和储存等新技术的使用来刺激减排。
根据清华大学气候变化与可持续发展研究院的一项研究,预计中国在2020-2050年期间需要投入超过100万亿元人民币用于新能源基础设施建设,才可能如期实现《巴黎协定》中的1.5℃目标。
本行预计,在进一步扩大覆盖范围之前,中国政府将首先加强碳排放交易体系所覆盖的发电厂的碳排放监测和数据披露。目前,中国根据发电厂过去的排放量、发电量和碳排放强度分配免费排放权。
随着碳排放交易体系的启动,效率提高的发电厂未来将能够通过出售多余配额获利,而排放量超过初始配额的发电厂将被迫购买额外的排放配额,否则将面临罚款。
本行预计,随着时间的推移,中国将扩大碳排放交易体系以覆盖更多的经济领域,并收紧碳排放配额,提高碳污染成本,刺激低碳技术投资。
把碳污染成本纳入商业和投资决策,将为同步全球经济活动与气候目标提供急需的动力(请参见气候变化——低碳转型)。
新加坡政府正在审核每吨5新加坡元的碳税水平和发展轨迹,预计将在明年的预算中公布结果。
新加坡金融管理局局长孟文能在2021年7月14日的讲话中表示,新加坡未来所需的碳价格增长轨迹要比原计划的更陡峭,才能帮助新加坡向更绿色的经济过渡。“新加坡可以负担比目前设想高得多的碳税,同时作为一个经济体仍旧能够保持竞争力。”
全球极端天气事件加强了应对气候变化的紧迫性
世界各地极端天气的出现频率不断上升。最近在中国河南省和欧洲部分地区发生的严重洪灾造成200多人死亡,100多万人被迫撤离。这些极端事件提醒人们,如果不升级基础设施和其他经济领域抵御气候变化的韧性,最终的成本可能远大于灾难来临前提前采取气候适应和防御措施的成本。
这种紧迫性是必要的。最近的气候趋势令人担忧:根据美国国家海洋与大气管理局(NOAA)的最新数据,到2021年6月,全球地表温度已连续438个月高于20世纪平均水平。
新机遇涌现
最新政策动向强化了本行的观点,即全球对于寻求具有气候韧性的可持续发展道路、减轻气候变化威胁所付出的努力,将在今后几年推动全球经济发生广泛而显著的变化(请参见气候行动:引爆趋势, 美国基础设施——重建更好未来以及美国就业规划:通往可持续发展之路。)
随着世界各地政府积极响应应对气候变化威胁的号召,预见这些变化并能成功适应的企业,将在重塑经济格局的过程中受益。
有关不同行业如何适应低碳转型,以及这些行业的机遇何在,详细信息请参阅发达市场汽车行业——电动化竞赛,日本股票策略——以ESG视角重新审视投资理念,全球医疗保健——防御型收益质量,重审相关ESG因素,欧盟公用事业——发电技术革新;美国公用事业板块——加速脱碳进程;中国房地产:ESG绿色债券发行激增;全球房地产——绿色环保势在必行;航空业——为绿色未来铺平道路;全球综合性石油公司——从“石油”向大型“能源”企业转型;以及全球银行业——盈利好转,绿色举措持续增加。
对企业和投资者而言,各种新的机会正在涌现,包括碳捕获和储存等脱碳技术,以及可再生能源方面的机会。
其他一些行业同样能够提供长期资产增值,拥有这类卓越投资机会的行业包括,间接涉及制造业、交通运输业、建筑业和城市设计等持续脱碳行业的公司(请参见美国重新加入全球对抗气候变化行列)。
其中包括空气净化系统中的专用化学品、芯片或其他关键部件的供应商。这些产品用于减少汽车和工厂碳排放,生产电动汽车电池,完善复杂自动化系统以减少建筑或工厂设施浪费并提高能效。
本行认为,随着未来几年低碳经济转型加快,全球经济各个领域将涌现更多投资机会。
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No person or entity in Taiwan has been authorised to provide the information and to offer the service in Taiwan. Thailand: Please note that neither Bank of Singapore Limited nor any other entities in the Bank of Singapore Limited’s group maintains any licences, authorisations or registrations in Thailand nor is any of the material and information contained, or the relevant securities or products specified herein approved or registered in Thailand. Interests in the relevant securities or products may not be offered or sold within Thailand. The attached information has been provided at your request for informational purposes only and shall not be copied or redistributed to any other person without the prior consent of Bank of Singapore Limited or its relevant entities and in no way constitutes an offer, solicitation, advertisement or advice of, or in relation to, the relevant securities or products by Bank of Singapore Limited or any other entities in Bank of Singapore Limited’s group in Thailand. The Philippines: The information contained in this document is not intended to constitute a public offering of securities under the Securities Regulation Code of the Philippines. Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC): Bank of Singapore Limited has a branch registered in the Dubai International Financial Centre ("DIFC") which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). Bank of Singapore Limited (DIFC Branch) is not a financial institution licensed in the United Arab Emirates outside of the DIFC and does not undertake banking or financial activities in the United Arab Emirates nor is it licensed to do so outside of the DIFC. This material is provided for information purposes only and it is general information not specific in any way to any particular investor, investor type, strategy, investment need or other financial circumstance. As such this information is not financial advice or a financial promotion, nor is it intended to influence an investor's decision to invest. It is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The material is only intended for persons who fulfill the criteria to be classified as “Professional Clients” as defined under the DFSA rules and should not be reviewed, received, provided to or relied upon by any other person. United Arab Emirates (U.A.E): The information contained herein is exclusively addressed to the recipient. The offering of certain products in this document has not been and will not be registered with the Central Bank of United Arab Emirates or Securities & Commodities Authority in the United Arab Emirates. Any products in this document that are being offered or sold do not constitute a public offering or distribution of securities under the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. This document is not intended for circulation or distribution in or into the UAE, other than to persons in the UAE to whom such circulation or distribution is permitted by, or is exempt from the requirements of, the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. The distribution of the information contained herein by the recipient is prohibited. Where applicable, this document relates to securities which are listed outside of the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and the Dubai Financial Market. The Bank of Singapore Limited is not authorized to provide investment research regarding securities listed on the exchanges of the United Arab Emirates which are outside of the DIFC. 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Brunei: This document has not been delivered to, licensed or permitted by the Autoriti Monetari Brunei Darussalam, the authority as designated under the Brunei Darussalam Securities Markets Order, 2013 and the Banking Order, 2006; nor has it been registered with the Registrar of Companies, Registrar of International Business Companies or the Brunei Darussalam Ministry of Finance. The products mentioned in this document are not registered, licensed or permitted by the Autoriti Monetari Brunei Darussalam or by any other government agency or under any law in Brunei Darussalam. Any offers, acceptances, sales and allotments of the products shall be made outside Brunei Darussalam.