- 观点
- 2020年10月14 日
独家访谈Thomas Frey
我们应如何面对疫情全球大流行及疫后时期，甚至欣然接受所带来的不确定性？
我们为客户打造专属的网络研讨会系列「新视角叙事」，其中我们邀请了Google的顶级未来学家Thomas Frey，他擅长系统地探索当代讯号，以预测未来的种种可能。
Thomas目前所创立的DaVinci Institute担任执行董事和高级未来学家。此前曾在IBM工作15年，目前仍是IBM公司最杰出的工程师，荣获270多个奖项。
Thomas正在彻底改变我们对未来的看法，下文载列这位远见专家的部分摘录。
对于「理解明天，才能在今日茁壮成长」的理念，Thomas称：
「作为一名未来学家，我的工作是帮助人们变得更好，并给予他们一些关于未来的想法和观点。那么问题来了：「未来是如何被创造的？」未来是在我们周围每个人的头脑中创造的。我们每个人均在创造未来。
我经常说：「未来创造现在」。这句话与传统思维正好相反。大多数人认为，我们今日所为会在某种程度上创造未来。但从另一个视角看，我们头脑中对未来的想象，决定了我们今日的行动。如果我们改变某人对未来的看法，我们就改变了他们今日的决策方式，这是非常关键的一点。而这就是我的工作目标。」
关于新冠状病毒(Covid-19)：
「新冠状病毒带来人类历史上的黑暗时刻。企业本身经受了数月的关停后，就难以再次重启。疫情严重冲击企业，同时我们看到了许多突破点。因为供应链已经中断，或是产品和服务突然失去需求，从而导致许多各式的企业无法重启业务。
例如，共享经济仍在苦海之中。现在人们不再去听大型音乐会或参加大型活动。主要街道上再见不到游行，人们不再欢庆节日，并且喜剧俱乐部不再营业。电影院即使开放，也几乎空无一人。我们目前尚未得知这些情况会以何种方式再次发生。
如今年轻人的头脑正被灌输接触恐惧症的想法，即害怕与他人相处。今后这将成为常态并将产生长期影响。
尽管如此，疫情虽然造成巨大混乱，同时亦带来巨大机会，在未来数月和数年内，大量机会和实验将蜂拥而现。」
关于未来的预测和趋势：
1.寻找意义和目标
「我们正在经历有史以来最大的工作转型，在此期间人们有时间坐下来思考一些事情，比如是否真的想在目前的人生阶段从事这份工作或营运这家企业。他们正在寻找一些更有意义和更值得追求的东西，他们发现目前是转变的绝佳机会。」
2.成长型行业
「部分行业(例如送货机器人)开始以指数级的速度发展。送货机器人突然爆发巨大需求，同时电动汽车的销量亦爆炸式增长。
实验室种植肉类的生产正全面展开，肉类生产设施将在2025年普及。它们将会迅速涌现，并大规模发展。
在这里特别谈一下远程办公。事实上，随着在家办公人士决定翻新自己的家，以创造更好的环境，2020年的家庭翻新异常火热。
到2030年，互联网最大的公司将是一家教育型公司，目前这家公司尚未发明，我们未曾听闻，并且规模要大于Google、Facebook或Apple。」
3.颠覆性的趋势
「历史上最具颠覆性的技术将是无人驾驶技术。这不仅仅指汽车驾驶，还包括水上或水下行船，以及空中驾驶。这些自动驾驶车辆的形状及形式各异。
相信不久之后，几乎每个主要城市均有超过50,000架无人机在上空飞行。届时，我们将需要建立无人机指挥中心，以及需要许多其他物项管理无人机交通。这亦将产生很多人才缺口。
接着则是数码化孪生技术。数码化孪生是一个有生命或无生命的物理实体的数码化复制品。例如，如果你在拖拉机或发电厂的涡轮机上安装了传感器，即可创建一个数码化复制品，并从远处(甚至从世界的另一端)进行监控。如果出现问题，则可订购一个替代品，而事实上你甚至可在问题发生之前就开始预测可能发生的问题。
技术发展非常迅速，下一阶段将进入远程机器人技术，而在手术领域已出现医生远程为病人做手术。
健康护理行业正从一个由药品驱动的行业，过渡至一个由数据驱动的行业。由于我们拥有数据可利用，我们即将能够为大众提供非常精确的药物和治疗形式。目前很多公司认为，人类基因组只是人体的另一种编程语言。因此，如果我们能以某种方式调整人类基因组，我们实际上可以对人体进行重新编程。
人工智能将改变教育界。未来教育需求将非常强劲，因此教育的角色正在发生变化。由于目前已经无法提前四到五年预测企业的教育需求，因此将在2030年进入劳动力市场的人士，最好重新规划职业生涯，并在工作生涯中多次重塑自身。这些人士将频繁转换职业，而随着人工智能的发展，一场变革即将到来，并几乎将会改变人们生活方式的方方面面。」
「下一步是什么」
「我们对全球的意识已经发生了变化：我们正在寻找一种新的叙事方式，而目前正是新一代叙事人指导我们的思维并相应创造机会的绝佳时机。我们对丰功伟人的定义正不断改变。我们正在探索疫情后新的领导形式、决策形式以及确定优先事项和完成工作任务的新方式。」
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This document is prepared by Bank of Singapore Limited (Co Reg. No.: 197700866R) (the “Bank”), is for information purposes only, and is not, by itself, intended for anyone other than the recipient. It may contain information proprietary to the Bank which may not be reproduced or redistributed in whole or in part without the Bank’s prior consent. It is not an offer or a solicitation to deal in any of the investment products referred to herein or to enter into any legal relations, nor an advice or by itself a recommendation with respect to such investment products. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, investment experience, financial situation and the particular needs of any recipient or customer. Customers should exercise caution in relation to any potential investment. Customers should independently evaluate each investment product and consider the suitability of such investment product, taking into account customer’s own specific investment objectives, investment experience, financial situation and/or particular needs. Customers will need to decide on their own as to whether or not the contents of this document are suitable for them. If a customer is in doubt about the contents of this document and/or the suitability of any investment products mentioned in this document for the customer, the customer should obtain independent financial, legal and/or tax advice from its professional advisers as necessary, before proceeding to make any investments.
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While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure that the contents of this document have been obtained or derived from sources believed by the Bank and its Affiliates to be reliable, neither the Bank nor its Affiliates has independently verified the accuracy of such source(s). The Bank and its Affiliates and their respective officers, employees, agents and representatives do not make any express or implied representations, warranties or guarantees as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information, data or prevailing state of affairs that are mentioned in this document and do not accept any liability for any loss or damage whatsoever, direct or indirect, arising from or in connection with the use of the contents of this document.
The Bank and its Affiliates may have issued other reports, analyses, or other documents expressing views different from the contents hereof and all views expressed in all reports, analyses and documents are subject to change without notice. The Bank and its Affiliates reserve the right to act upon or use the contents hereof at any time, including before its publication herein.
The author of this document may have discussed the information contained therein with others within or outside the Bank and the author and/or such other Bank personnel may have already acted on the basis of this information (including communicating the information contained herein to other customers of the Bank). The Bank, its personnel (including those with whom the author may have consulted in the preparation of this communication), and other customers of the Bank may be long or short the financial instruments or other products referred to in this document, may have acquired such positions at prices and market conditions that are no longer available, and may have interests different from or adverse to your interests. The persons providing the information to you may receive commissions, fees, rebates or other non-monetary benefits from any counterparty, broker, agent or another affiliate of the OCBC Group or any other party in respect of any trades or transactions effected for you including in relation to the investments referred to herein.
Bank of Singapore Limited is a licensed bank regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in Singapore. Bank of Singapore Limited, Hong Kong Branch, is an Authorized Institution as defined in the Banking Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap 155), regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority in Hong Kong and a Registered Institution as defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap.571) regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong. Bank of Singapore Limited, its employees and discretionary accounts managed by its Singapore Office may have long or short positions or may be otherwise interested in any of the investment products (including derivatives thereof) referred to in this document and may from time to time dispose of any such investment products. Bank of Singapore Limited forms part of the OCBC Group (being for this purpose Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited and its subsidiaries, related and affiliated companies). OCBC Group, their respective directors and/or employees (collectively “Related Persons”) may or might have in the future interests in the investment products or the issuers mentioned herein. Such interests include effecting transactions in such investment products, and providing broking, investment banking and other financial services to such issuers. OCBC Group and its Related Persons may also be related to, and receive fees from, providers of such investment products.
Bank of Singapore Limited adheres to a group policy (as revised and updated from time to time) that provides how entities in the OCBC Group manage or eliminate any actual or potential conflicts of interest which may impact the impartiality of research reports issued by any research analyst in the OCBC Group.
Past performance is not always indicative of likely or future results. The value of any investment or income may go down as well as up. All investments involve an element of risk, including capital loss. Customers who are interested to invest in such investment products should read the risk disclosures and governing terms and conditions that are set out in the relevant offering documents.
Dual currency investments, structured deposits and other investment products are not insured by the Singapore Deposit Insurance Corporation or the Hong Kong Deposit Protection Scheme.
Applicable to clients booked and/or managed in the Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC) only: The information contained herein is exclusively addressed to the recipient. The offering of certain products in this document has not been and will not be registered with the Central Bank of United Arab Emirates or Securities & Commodities Authority in the United Arab Emirates. Any products in this document that are being offered or sold do not constitute a public offering or distribution of securities under the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. This document is not intended for circulation or distribution in or into the UAE, other than to persons in the UAE to whom such circulation or distribution is permitted by, or is exempt from the requirements of, the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. The distribution of the information contained herein by the recipient is prohibited. Where applicable, this document relates to securities which are listed outside of the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and the Dubai Financial Market. Bank of Singapore Limited is not authorized to provide investment research regarding securities listed on the exchanges of the United Arab Emirates which are outside of the DIFC.
Cross-Border Marketing
Hong Kong SAR: Bank of Singapore Limited is an Authorized Institution as defined in the Banking Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap 155), regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority in Hong Kong and a Registered Institution as defined in the Securities and Futures Ordinance of Hong Kong (Cap. 571), regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong. This document is for information only and is not intended for anyone other than the recipient. It has not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong. It is not by itself an offer or a solicitation to deal in any of the financial products referred to herein or to enter into any legal relations, nor an advice or a recommendation with respect to such financial products. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, investment experience and the particular needs of any recipient or Investor. This document may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed in whole or in part to any other person without the Bank’s prior written consent. This document is not intended for distribution to, publication or use by any person in any jurisdiction outside Hong Kong, or such other jurisdiction as the Bank may determine in its absolute discretion, where such distribution, publication or use would be contrary to applicable law or would subject the Bank and its related corporations, connected persons, associated persons and/or affiliates to any registration, licensing or other requirements within such jurisdiction. Indonesia: The offering of the investment product in reliance of this document is not registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and its implementing regulations, and is not intended to constitute a public offering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and its implementing regulations. According, this investment product may not be offered or sold, directly or indirectly, within Indonesia or to citizens (wherever they are domiciled or located), entities or residents, in any manner which constitutes a public offering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and its implementing regulations. Japan: The information contained in this document is for general reference purposes only. It does not have regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk tolerance and particular needs. Nothing in this document constitutes an offer to buy or sell or an invitation to offer to buy or sell or a recommendation or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or investment. We do not have any intention of conducting regulated business in Japan. You acknowledge that nothing in this document constitutes investment or financial advice or any advice of any nature. Malaysia: Bank of Singapore Limited does not hold any licence, registration or approval to carry on any regulated business in Malaysia (including but not limited to any businesses regulated under the Capital Markets & Services Act 2007 of Malaysia), nor does it hold itself out as carrying on or purport to carry on any such business in Malaysia. Any services provided by Bank of Singapore Limited to residents of Malaysia are provided solely on an offshore basis from outside Malaysia, either as a result of “reverse enquiry” on the part of the Malaysian residents or where Bank of Singapore Limited has been retained outside Malaysia to provide such services. As an integral part of the provision of such services from outside Malaysia, Bank of Singapore Limited may from time to time make available to such residents documents and information making reference to capital markets products (for example, in connection with the provision of fund management or investment advisory services outside of Malaysia). Nothing in such documents or information is intended to be construed as or constitute the making available of, or an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase any such capital markets product. Myanmar: This document and information herein is made available by Bank of Singapore Limited, which is not licensed or registered under the Financial Institutions Law (Law No. 20/2016) or other Myanmar legislation to carry on, nor do they purport to carry on, any regulated activity in Myanmar. The provision of any products and services by Bank of Singapore Limited shall be solely on an offshore basis. You shall ensure that you have and will continue to be fully compliant with all applicable laws in Myanmar when entering into discussion or contracts with Bank of Singapore Limited. Oman: This document does not constitute a public offer of investment, securities or financial services in the Sultanate of Oman, as contemplated by the Commercial Companies Law of Oman (Royal Decree No. 4/1974), Banking Law of Oman (Royal Decree No. 114/2000) or the Capital Market Law of Oman (Royal Decree No. 80/1998) and the Executive Regulations of the Capital Market Law (Ministerial Decision No. 1/2009) or an offer to sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy non-Omani investment products, securities or financial services and products in the Sultanate of Oman. This document is strictly private and confidential. It is being provided to a limited number of sophisticated investors solely to enable them to decide whether or not to make an offer to invest in financial products mentioned in this document, outside of the Sultanate of Oman, upon the terms and subject to the restrictions set out herein and may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose or provided to any person other than the original recipient. Additionally, this document is not intended to lead to the making of any contract within the territory or under the laws of the Sultanate of Oman. The Capital Market Authority of Oman and the Central Bank of Oman take no responsibility for the accuracy of the statements and information contained in this document or for the performance of the financial products mentioned in this document nor shall they have any liability to any person for damage or loss resulting from reliance on any statement or information contained herein. Russia: The investment products mentioned in this document have not been registered with or approved by the local regulator of any country and are not publicly distributed in Singapore or elsewhere. This document does not constitute or form part of an offer or invitation to the public in any country to subscribe for the products referred to herein. South Korea: The document does not constitute an offer, solicitation or investment advertisement to trade in the investment product referred to in the document. Taiwan: The provision of the information and the offer of the service concerned herewith have not been and will not be registered with the Financial Supervisory Commission of Taiwan pursuant to relevant laws and regulations of Taiwan and may not be provided or offered in Taiwan or in circumstances which requires a prior registration or approval of the Financial Supervisory Commission of Taiwan. No person or entity in Taiwan has been authorised to provide the information and to offer the service in Taiwan. Thailand: Please note that neither Bank of Singapore Limited nor any other entities in the Bank of Singapore Limited’s group maintains any licences, authorisations or registrations in Thailand nor is any of the material and information contained, or the relevant securities or products specified herein approved or registered in Thailand. Interests in the relevant securities or products may not be offered or sold within Thailand. The attached information has been provided at your request for informational purposes only and shall not be copied or redistributed to any other person without the prior consent of Bank of Singapore Limited or its relevant entities and in no way constitutes an offer, solicitation, advertisement or advice of, or in relation to, the relevant securities or products by Bank of Singapore Limited or any other entities in Bank of Singapore Limited’s group in Thailand. The Philippines: The information contained in this document is not intended to constitute a public offering of securities under the Securities Regulation Code of the Philippines. Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC): Bank of Singapore Limited has a branch registered in the Dubai International Financial Centre ("DIFC") which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). Bank of Singapore Limited (DIFC Branch) is not a financial institution licensed in the United Arab Emirates outside of the DIFC and does not undertake banking or financial activities in the United Arab Emirates nor is it licensed to do so outside of the DIFC. This material is provided for information purposes only and it is general information not specific in any way to any particular investor, investor type, strategy, investment need or other financial circumstance. As such this information is not financial advice or a financial promotion, nor is it intended to influence an investor's decision to invest. It is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The material is only intended for persons who fulfill the criteria to be classified as “Professional Clients” as defined under the DFSA rules and should not be reviewed, received, provided to or relied upon by any other person. United Arab Emirates (U.A.E): The information contained herein is exclusively addressed to the recipient. The offering of certain products in this document has not been and will not be registered with the Central Bank of United Arab Emirates or Securities & Commodities Authority in the United Arab Emirates. Any products in this document that are being offered or sold do not constitute a public offering or distribution of securities under the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. This document is not intended for circulation or distribution in or into the UAE, other than to persons in the UAE to whom such circulation or distribution is permitted by, or is exempt from the requirements of, the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. The distribution of the information contained herein by the recipient is prohibited. Where applicable, this document relates to securities which are listed outside of the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and the Dubai Financial Market. The Bank of Singapore Limited is not authorized to provide investment research regarding securities listed on the exchanges of the United Arab Emirates which are outside of the DIFC. United Kingdom: In the United Kingdom, this document is being made available only to the person or the entity to whom it is directed being persons to whom it may lawfully be directed under applicable laws and regulations of the United Kingdom (such persons are hereinafter referred to as ‘relevant persons’). Accordingly, this document is communicated only to relevant persons. Persons who are not relevant persons must not act on or rely on this document or any of its contents. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. Relevant persons in receipt of this document must not distribute, publish, reproduce, or disclose this document (in whole or in part) to any person who is not a relevant person. United States of America: This product may not be sold or offered within the United States or to U.S. persons.
Brunei: This document has not been delivered to, licensed or permitted by the Autoriti Monetari Brunei Darussalam, the authority as designated under the Brunei Darussalam Securities Markets Order, 2013 and the Banking Order, 2006; nor has it been registered with the Registrar of Companies, Registrar of International Business Companies or the Brunei Darussalam Ministry of Finance. The products mentioned in this document are not registered, licensed or permitted by the Autoriti Monetari Brunei Darussalam or by any other government agency or under any law in Brunei Darussalam. Any offers, acceptances, sales and allotments of the products shall be made outside Brunei Darussalam.
